Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 47.15%. A win for Watford had a probability of 27.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.28%) and 0-2 (8.43%). The likeliest Watford win was 1-0 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.