Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 56.04%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 22.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.69%) and 1-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 1-2 (5.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.