Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 60.48%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 18.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.22%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.12%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (5.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.