Two sides looking to bounce back from their respective defeats last time out go head to head at the Estadio do Dragao as Porto play host to Vitoria de Guimaraes on Sunday.
The hosts head into the game fresh off the back of a Champions League defeat at the hands of Liverpool, while the visitors suffered a 3-2 cup defeat against Moreirense.
Match preview
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Porto were denied a third win on the bounce last Wednesday when they fell to a 2-0 defeat against high-flying Liverpool at Anfield in Group B of the Champions League.
Following an uneventful first half, the game sparked into life in the 52nd minute when Thiago Alcantara scored a belter to put the Reds one goal up before Mohamed Salah made sure of the result with a 70th-minute strike.
Prior to that, Porto booked their place in the fifth round of the Taca de Portugal as they eased to an emphatic 5-1 victory over Segunda Liga side Feirense on November 20.
The Dragoes now turn their sights to the Primeira Liga where they comfortably saw off Santa Clara 3-0 at the Estadio de Sao Miguel through Sergio Oliveira's 42nd-minute opener and Luis Diaz's second-half brace.
Porto have kicked off their quest to unseat reigning champions Sporting Lisbon on the front foot as they are currently both tied on 29 points at the summit of the Primeira Liga standings.
However, Sergio Conceicao's side currently edge out Sporting Lisbon to first place thanks to their superior goal difference and this is down to their sensational display at the attacking end of the pitch, where they boast the league's best record with 28 goals scored, while conceding seven at the opposite end of the pitch.
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Meanwhile, Vitoria de Guimaraes were dumped out of the Taca de Portugal last time out when they fell to a 3-2 defeat at the hands of an inspired Moreirense side in the second of their two consecutive meetings.
In an action-packed contest at the Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, a first-half brace from Yan Santos and Steven Vitoria's 60th-minute strike put the hosts three goals up before goals from Rochina and Rafa Soares in the final four minutes of the game reduced the deficit to one.
Prior to that, Vitoria de Guimaraes ended their run of two games without a win when they claimed a 2-1 win over Os verdes e brancos through goals in either half from Marcus Edwards and Bruno Duarte before Felipe Pires pulled one back for the visitors.
With 16 points from 11 games, Pepa's men currently find themselves in seventh place in the Primeira Liga table, three points off the Conference League qualification spot, and this has been down to their fine display at the defensive end of the pitch, where they boast the league's sixth-best record after shipping 10 goals.
While Os Vimaranenses will be looking to quickly return to winning ways, they face the daunting task of going up against an opposing side who they have failed to defeat in each of the most recent six meetings between the teams, managing one draw and losing five games since a 3-2 win back in 2018.
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Team News
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Porto remain without the services of Ivan Marcano after the Spanish defender picked up a leg injury in the game against Boavista back in October.
Veteran defender Pepe came off injured 25 minutes into the defeat against Liverpool last time out and the former Real Madrid man is a major doubt for this one.
Should the 38-year-old fail to return to full fitness in time for the game, his replacement in the aforementioned game Fabio Cardoso could come into the mix.
Vitoria de Guimaraes, on the other hand, will still have to cope without the services of Portuguese defender Silvio, who has been out of action since picking up an injury back in September.
He is joined on the club's injury table by the duo of Toni Borevkovic and Oscar Estupinian, who continue their spells on the sidelines through injuries.
Porto possible starting lineup:
Costa; Sanusi, Mbemba, Cardoso, Mario; Oliviera, Grujic, Diaz, Corona; Taremi, Evanilson
Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Trmal; Soares, Mumin, Amaro, Sacko; Almeida, Handel, Silva; Edwards, Duarte, Quaresma
We say: Porto 3-1 Vitoria de Guimaraes
Porto will be looking to restore some pride after their Champions League defeat at the hands of Liverpool last time out. They have been solid at both ends of the pitch so far and we predict they will continue to edge out the visitors and come out on top once again.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 70.43%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 11.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.41%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.64%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (3.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
