Portimonense play host to Moreirense on Monday evening knowing that victory could secure their place in Primeira Liga for another 12 months.
Despite a four-match winless streak, Moreirense can still finish as high as sixth position if they put together a strong end to the campaign.
Match preview
Throughout the early weeks of April, Portimonense were performing like a team who looked capable of securing a place in the top half of the standings with games to spare.
However, a three-match winning streak has been followed by four matches without success, the latest being a 1-0 reverse at the hands of Belenenses on Thursday.
Sitting just three points adrift of their ninth-placed opponents, Portimonense can significantly improve their position with victory at Estadio Municipal de Portimao.
Nevertheless, Paulo Sergio will be focused on ensuring that his side do not fall closer to the relegation zone, the current margin for error standing at three points.
Portimonense have netted just one goal in their last seven halves of football, that solitary strike coming away at 17th-placed SC Farense.
From Moreirense's perspective, they will view this contest as an ideal opportunity to keep the pressure on the other teams in contention for seventh spot.
With Vitoria De Guimaraes five points clear in sixth, that is the realistic aim for a club which have failed to prevail in any of their five most recent fixtures.
Vasco Seabra and his side would have hoped to end their disappointing period with victory over bottom-of-the-table Nacional in the last match.
However, Os verdes e brancos twice had to come from behind to earn a share of the spoils, a show of character when they could have succumbed to their motivated opponents.
Defender Nahuel Ferraresi has netted twice in his last three appearances, the 22-year-old's only two goals of the season.
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Team News
Anderson Oliveira and Koki Anzai were introduced as half-time substitutes in Portimonense's defeat to Belenenses, putting them in contention for a start in this match.
Fali Cande and Pedro Sa appear most likely to lose their places in the starting lineup, while Ricardo Vaz Te will feel that he deserves his first opportunity in the first XI after eight appearances off the bench.
Moreirense will have to make do without Ibrahima Camara after he collected his fifth yellow card of the season against Nacional.
That could hand a reprieve to David Simao, who was substituted at half time in that match, but Andre Luis will expect to replace Filipe Soares after netting his first goal of the campaign last time out.
Portimonense possible starting lineup:
Samuel; Moufi, Possignolo, Antonio, Anzai; Willyan, Poha, Oliveira; Boa Morte, Beto, Fabricio
Moreirense possible starting lineup:
Kewin; Ferraresi, Rosic, Ba, Conte; Walterson, Simao, Franco, Pires; Luis, Martins
We say: Portimonense 1-1 Moreirense
While Portimonense will view this contest as a winnable game, they also stand to benefit by avoiding defeat. With Moreirense not firing on all cylinders, we feel that the most likely outcome is a low-scoring draw.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 42.06%. A draw had a probability of 29.3% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 28.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.5%) and 2-1 (7.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.26%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
