Round 18 of the Portuguese Primeira Liga comes to an end at the Estadio Municipal de Portimao where Portimonense square off against Vitoria de Guimaraes on Monday.
Both sides head into the game separated by just one point in the league table and Os Vimaranenses will look to get one over the hosts after suffering defeats in both home and away fixtures last season.
Match preview
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Portimonense saw their Taca de Portugal campaign come to an end in the quarter-finals as they were sent packing courtesy of a disappointing 4-2 defeat at the hands of Segunda Liga side Mafra on home turf last Thursday.
Shoya Nakajima pulled one back for the Alvinegros after Rodrigo Martins and Guilherme put Mafra two goals up, but Pedro Lucas netted in the 36th minute to hand the visitors a 3-1 lead heading into half time, and after Bura converted his second-half penalty to widen the margin, Aylton Boa Morte scored in the 90th minute to halve the deficit.
Paulo Sergio's men now turn their attention to the Primeira Liga, where they are currently on a three-game winless run, picking up one draw and losing each of their most recent two outings.
Portimonense have now managed just one win from their last five league outings — losing three and claiming one draw in that time — with a 1-0 win over Moreirense on December 12 being the only exception.
Meanwhile, Vitoria de Guimaraes continue to struggle for form in the Primeira Liga as they fell to a 3-2 defeat against Gil Vicente at the Estadio Cidade de Barcelos last time out.
After going three goals down through a brace from Fran Navarro and Antoine Leautey's 75th-minute strike, Nelson Luz and Marcus Edwards both scored in the closing 11 minutes of the game, but it was too little, too late, as the hosts picked up their fourth win in five games.
Vitoria de Guimaraes have now failed to win any of their most recent three outings, losing twice and claiming one draw since picking up consecutive victories over Pacos de Ferreira and Tondela back in December.
Os Vimaranenses have won six, drawn five and lost six of their 17 games this season to collect 23 points and sit in eighth place in the Primeira Liga table, one point and one place below Monday's hosts.
While Pepa's side will be looking to return to winning ways and leapfrog the Alvinegros on the log, they lost each of the two meetings between the sides last season, conceding four goals and failing to find the target over two legs.
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Team News
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Sergio will be unable to call upon the services of 23-year-old defender Fali Cande, who is currently on international duty with Guinea-Bissau at the ongoing Africa Cup of Nations.
On the injury front, Portimonense head into the game without Moroccan full-back Achraf Lazaar, who has been out of action since sustaining a fibula injury back in September.
Despite the defeat against Mafra last time out, we expect no changes in attack for the hosts, meaning Morte, Nakajima and Fabricio should start for the third game running.
Meanwhile, the trio of Falaye Sacko, Alfa Semedo and Khalid Abdul Mumin will be missing from the Vitoria de Guimaraes team sheet as they are all on international duty at the Africa Cup of Nations.
While the likes of Helder Sa, Ricardo Quaresma and Borges Guedes have all recovered from COVID-19, Oscar Estupinan remains in isolation and is a major doubt for Monday's game.
Os Vimaranenses will also have to make do with the absence of Edwards, who received a 90th-minute red card against Gil Vicente last time out.
Portimonense possible starting lineup:
Samuel; Possignolo, Pedrao, Rocha; Moufi, Carlinhos, Relvas, Sa; Morte, Nakajima, Fabricio
Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Soares, Fernandes, Borevkovic, Ferreira; Silva, Handel, Andre; Lameiras, Almeida, Quaresma
We say: Portimonense 1-1 Vitoria de Guimaraes
With Portimonense and Vitoria de Guimaraes separated by one point just inside the top half of the table, we can expect a cagey contest on Monday. Both sides head into the game evenly matched on paper and we predict they will settle for a share of the spoils.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 38.05%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 32.76% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.67%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (11.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
