Third-placed Philadelphia Union host second-placed Nashville SC on Sunday in the Eastern Conference, with both sides closing in on securing a playoff spot.
The home side are looking to bounce back after defeat last time out, while Nashville are unbeaten in their last six outings, but are also winless in their last five games.
Match preview
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Philadelphia had turned the game around against Minnesota United thanks to a brace from Daniel Gazdag, after initially falling behind in the first half, but Jim Curtin's side's lead did not last long as the home team on Thursday regained control and Union fell to a 3-2 defeat against the Western Conference outfit.
The U's did dominate the ball in that game, perhaps helped by Minnesota being reduced to 10 players for the last 15 minutes after Romain Metanire was shown a red card, but Union could not continue their six-game unbeaten run.
That defeat was the side's first since their CONCACAF Champions League exit in the middle of September, but generally in this 2021 campaign, Philadelphia have managed to bounce back after defeat in the MLS.
Curtin's team are currently five points ahead of the chasing pack for the playoffs, so with four games to play, their work in this regular season is far from complete, and Union will need to ensure Thursday's result is not the start of a poor run of form.
Nashville will edge very close to mathematically securing their playoff place with a win on Sunday, but Gary Smith will be confident that his side have already secured their place as they look to continue their unbeaten run.
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However, the Six-Strings would have hoped to pick up some more points along the way on this unbeaten set of results, but another draw last time out meant that Nashville extended their winless run to five games.
That match against Columbus Crew had to wait until the 75th minute for the first goal, which went to the away side through Lucas Zelarayan, but Nashville struck back almost immediately to level the game courtesy of Hany Mukhtar's 14th strike of the league campaign.
After two goalless draws prior to that outing, Smith will be pleased that his side found the back of the net again, but they are likely to need to find the attacking form that they show on home soil in their away games to follow.
Nashville are undefeated on their own patch this season, winning eight and drawing as many at the Nissan Stadium, but they have only won three times away from home and have scored 21 fewer goals on their travels.
In the last meeting between these two teams, Nashville edged Philadelphia 1-0 in Tennessee, and this encounter is also expected to be a tight affair with not much to split the sides.
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Team News
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Philadelphia striker Cory Burke has missed the last month of games due to a sprained ankle, and he is expected to miss out again on Sunday as he nears a return to full fitness.
Fellow attacker Ilsinho has been sidelined for slightly longer than Burke, and he will also be unavailable this weekend as he continues to suffer from a hamstring injury.
Goalkeeper Andre Blake returned to the side last time out, after Matt Freese was handed a starting place in the previous two matches, but the shot stopper and the back four will remain the same as Thursday for Union.
Alistair Johnston replaced Eric Miller in the right wing-back role last time out for Nashville, but Johnston is expected to return to the starting lineup as well as Brian Anunga.
Striker Charles Sapong is currently on a five-game run without a goal, his longest goal drought since May, so he will be keen to get back onto the scoresheet for the visitors.
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Wagner, Elliott, Glesnes, Mbaizo; Flach, Martinez, Bedoya; Monteiro, Przybylko, Gazdag
Nashville SC possible starting lineup:
Willis; Romney, Zimmerman, Maher; Washington, Anunga, McCarty, Miller; Godoy, Mukhtar; Sapong
We say: Philadelphia Union 0-1 Nashville SC
Philadelphia will be disappointed with their result last time out, and Nashville could see that as a good opportunity to get back to winning ways themselves after so many draws in their recent games.
Nashville know how to beat Union as they demonstrated in July, and granted that was a few months ago, but Union did lose to fellow top three side New England by a 1-0 margin in their last home defeat, and Nashville will be looking to do the same.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 51.78%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Nashville SC had a probability of 22.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.39%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.2%), while for a Nashville SC win it was 0-1 (8.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Philadelphia Union in this match.
