Seeking to end their run of six games without a win in all competitions, Arouca take a trip to the Estadio Capital do Movel to face Pacos de Ferreira on Sunday.
The hosts, who are currently 11th in the Primeira Liga standings, head into the game off the back of ending their five-game winless run and will be looking to kick on and move into the top half of the table.
Match preview
© Reuters
Pacos de Ferreira progressed to the fourth round of the Taca de Portugal when they cruised to a comfortable 3-0 win away to Aguias Moradal last Sunday.
In a one-sided affair, Ze Uilton broke the deadlock shortly after the half-hour mark to put the visitors in front heading into the interval before Flavio Ramos and Joao Pedro Silva netted second-half goals to extend the margin.
Jorge Simao's men now turn their sights to the Primeira Liga, where they have suffered a slump in form in recent weeks and are currently 11th on the log after picking up nine points from their opening eight outings.
Following a 2-1 defeat at the hands of title-chasing Porto in their last league outing, Os Castores are now without a win in each of their most recent four outings, picking up three points from 12 available.
Simao will now hope the cup victory last time out can serve as a catalyst for a fine run of form as they look to move back into the top half of the standings.
Meanwhile, Arouca were dumped out of the Taca de Portugal last time out when they lost on penalties against bottom-tier Leca at the Estadio do Leca.
Nuno Barbosa and Kouassi Eboue netted for either side to force a 1-1 draw in regular time, and with nothing to separate the sides after extra time, the visitors claimed a 2-1 victory on penalties.
This disappointing performance was in keeping with their struggles in the Primeira Liga, where they are currently in the relegation playoff spot after a horrid start to the season.
The newly-promoted side are without a win in each of their most recent five league games, losing three and picking up two draws since a 2-1 win over Famalicao at the Estadio Municipal de Arouca back in August.
This has been in no small part down to their struggles in defence, where they boast the division's poorest record after shipping 16 goals, with their luck at the opposite end of the pitch not any better as they have netted just eight to date.
While Arouca will be looking to arrest this drop-off in form, awaiting them is an opposing side who they have failed to defeat in all but one of the last 14 meetings between the sides, losing eight and picking up five draws in that time.
- L
- W
- D
- D
- D
- L
- D
- D
- L
- D
- L
- W
- W
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
- L
Team News
Pacos de Ferreira defender Fernando Fonseca will play no part in this weekend's encounter after the 24-year-old picked up an injury against Braga back in September.
Another name on the club's injury list is Joao Vigario, who picked up a knee injury versus Larne in the Conference League qualifiers back in August.
Arouca, on the other hand, will have to cope without the services of Venezuelan defender Sema Velazquez, who is set to miss his fifth straight game after sustaining an Achilles' tendon injury while on international duty versus Argentina.
Eugeni Valderrama will also play no part for the visitors after the 27-year-old came off with an injury in September's game versus Vitoria de Guimaraes.
The midfield duo of Moses Yaw and Antony Santos are out of contention as they are currently recuperating from knee and groin injuries respectively.
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Ferreira; Silva, Ramos, Maracas, Antunes; Eustaquio, Carlos; Ferreira, Santos, Silva; Denilson
Arouca possible starting lineup:
Castro; Thales, Ba, Basso, Quaresma; Valderrama, Pite, Moreira; Bukia, Araujo, Silva
We say: Pacos de Ferreira 2-0 Arouca
Following their promotion last term, Arouca have failed to get going in the big leagues and currently find themselves in the relegation places. Pacos de Ferreira head into the game on a run of three straight wins against the visitors and we are backing them to take advantage of their home crowd support and claim all three points against an out-of-sorts side.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 38.38%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 33.44% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.99%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (10.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
