There is little to separate these two nations seeking to make a positive start on matchday one in their quest to secure a top-two finish in Group B. Both sides have the potential to cause each other problems in the final third, but we are backing Ukraine to edge this contest in Lyon. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iraq Under-23s win with a probability of 58.57%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Ukraine Under-23s had a probability of 19.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iraq Under-23s win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.64%), while for a Ukraine Under-23s win it was 0-1 (5.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Iraq Under-23s would win this match.

Result
Iraq Under-23s	Draw	Ukraine Under-23s
58.57% ( -8.62)	22.4% ( 1.78)	19.03% ( 6.84)

Both teams to score 52% (

9.96)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.46% (

5.07)

46.54% (

-5.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.18% (

4.59)

68.81% (

-4.59)

Iraq Under-23s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.43% (

-1.09)

15.56% (

1.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.48% (

-2.06)

44.51% (

2.06)

Ukraine Under-23s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.58% (

12.43)

38.41% (

-12.43)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.83% (

10.07)

75.16% (

-10.07)

Score Analysis

Iraq Under-23s 58.56%

Ukraine Under-23s 19.03%

Draw 22.4%

Iraq Under-23s	Draw	Ukraine Under-23s
1-0 @ 11.12% ( -3.1) 2-0 @ 10.34% ( -3.4) 2-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.6) 3-0 @ 6.42% ( -2.44) 3-1 @ 6.14% ( 0.15) 4-0 @ 2.98% ( -1.3) 3-2 @ 2.94% ( 0.91) 4-1 @ 2.85% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( 0.39) 5-0 @ 1.11% ( -0.54) 5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.35% Total : 58.56%	1-1 @ 10.64% ( 1.02) 0-0 @ 5.98% ( -1.38) 2-2 @ 4.74% ( 1.59) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.48) Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.4%	0-1 @ 5.72% ( 0.74) 1-2 @ 5.09% ( 1.84) 0-2 @ 2.74% ( 1.05) 1-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.89) 2-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.8) Other @ 2.35% Total : 19.03%