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Napoli logo
Serie A | Gameweek 28
Mar 6, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Milan logo

Napoli
0 - 1
AC Milan


Koulibaly (24'), Rrahmani (37'), Osimhen (77'), Ounas (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Giroud (49')
Pioli (8'), Giroud (39'), Hernandez (77'), Maignan (83'), Florenzi (90+3')

Preview: Napoli vs. AC Milan - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Napoli and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

With the leadership of Serie A at stake, Napoli welcome AC Milan to Stadio Maradona on Sunday evening, and either side would go top with a win.

Locked together on 57 points, the Azzurri started the season with eight successive wins, while their Rossonero counterparts began in similar style. Since then, the pair have experienced several shifts of momentum, but they convene in Naples with the Scudetto still very much up for grabs.


Match preview

Napoli's Lorenzo Insigne celebrates scoring their first goal on February 27, 2022© Reuters

So far in the second half of the season, Napoli have accumulated the most points and conceded the fewest goals in Serie A, but had drawn their last two league games and been beaten by Barcelona in the Europa League before travelling to Rome last weekend.

Only days after their exit from continental competition, a potential three points against Lazio seemed to have slipped from the Partenopei's grasp too, only for a dramatic twist to the tale at Stadio Olimpico.

When Pedro volleyed home a brilliant equaliser in the dying moments, Lazio appeared set to steal a 1-1 draw; extending Napoli's winless run to a fourth game and keeping them off the top of the Serie A standings.

However, the visitors snatched victory with Fabian Ruiz's even sweeter stoppage-time strike - sparking celebrations and an emotional response from manager Luciano Spalletti.

Napoli now have a league-high 10 goals from outside the box, largely thanks to long-range specialist Ruiz's six strikes - which sees the Spain international also topping the individual charts. With such prowess in addition to the best away record and the meanest defence, the Neapolitans are a formidable force for any team to face during the run-in.

In a tense affair when they last met Milan, Eljif Elmas - currently the youngest player with at least five assists in Serie A this season - scored what turned out to be Napoli's winner as early as the fifth minute at San Siro, and given both their defensive record and recent results against the Rossoneri, they will be a tough nut to crack again on Sunday.

AC Milan's Rafael Leao celebrates scoring their first goal on February 24, 2022© Reuters

Following December's defeat on home soil, Milan have won only one of their last 14 league meetings with Napoli - suffering eight defeats in the process.

Though they have lost each of their last two (both 1-0), Stefano Pioli's side came out on top in their most recent encounter in Naples. However, ahead of this week's crucial clash, they have not posted successive Serie A wins there since 1981.

Milan will make the journey south having scrapped out a goalless draw in the second Derby della Madonnina of the season on Tuesday, as they were held by old foes Inter in the first leg of the clubs' Coppa Italia semi-final.

Having previously seen their city rivals beaten by Sassuolo in Serie A, once they had drawn at rock-bottom Salernitana, the Rossoneri again slipped up in the opening game of last weekend - being held 1-1 at home by lowly Udinese, due to a controversial equalising goal.

While they retained their slim points advantage over Inter - who could only draw at Genoa - the dramatic events at Stadio Olimpico then saw Napoli take top spot.

Subsequently, Inter leapfrogged both sides with victory over Salernitana on Friday, leaving the Scudetto race wide open - and the ghost of the Old Lady still stalks all three: resurgent Juventus are back within striking range. All of which makes Milan's trip to the Maradona a potentially decisive 90 minutes for both sides.

Napoli Serie A form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W

Napoli form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • W

AC Milan Serie A form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D

AC Milan form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • D



Team News

Napoli coach Luciano Spalletti reacts on February 27, 2022© Reuters

As Napoli's injury crisis continues to ease, Luciano Spalletti is set to welcome back Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa and Hirving Lozano to his squad on Sunday, with only defensive reserves Kevin Malcuit and Axel Tuanzebe still sidelined for Milan's visit.

While Stanislav Lobotka could replace Diego Demme in central midfield, the hosts are likely to remain otherwise unchanged, with captain Lorenzo Insigne starting in his familiar role on the left of the Azzurri's front three - having finally scored his first goal from open play last weekend.

MLS-bound Insigne can become the first Serie A forward to reach 250 wins with one club since 2010 if he leads his side to success alongside 11-goal top scorer Victor Osimhen.

Milan, meanwhile, will also be strengthened by the return of midfield mainstay Sandro Tonali, who missed out on Tuesday due to suspension and is set to replace Franck Kessie in the visitors' engine room, where he should be joined by Ismael Bennacer - back from a one-match Serie A ban served against Udinese.

Alessio Romagnoli is a doubt for Stefano Pioli's side because of a thigh problem, and long-term absentee Simon Kjaer remains out of action, but Zlatan Ibrahimovic is closing in on a return from his Achilles injury and could even make the bench.

In the three-man support network for Olivier Giroud up front, Brahim Diaz and Franck Kessie will both hope to supplant Rade Krunic, while Junior Messias and Alexis Saelemakers go head to head for a place on the right flank.

Napoli possible starting lineup:
Ospina; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Koulibaly, Rui; Lobotka, Ruiz; Politano, Zielinski, Insigne; Osimhen

AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Calabria, Tomori, Kalulu, Hernandez; Tonali, Bennacer; Saelemaekers, Kessie, Leao; Giroud


SM words green background

We say: Napoli 1-0 AC Milan

At least three goals have been scored in each of the last five Serie A matches between these teams in Naples (22 in total; more than four on average), but this could well be a more cagey affair.

There was little to split the sides in the reverse fixture, so a single goal could decide the destiny of three precious points - leaving the losers playing catch-up in the title race.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 47.72%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 28.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.36%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Napoli vs AC Milan

Napoli
49.3%
Draw
20.3%
AC Milan
30.4%
148
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli118121881025
2Inter Milan1173125131224
3Atalanta BCAtalanta1171329141522
4Fiorentina116412291322
5Lazio1171324141022
6Juventus115601971221
7AC Milan105231711617
8Udinese115151416-216
9Bologna103611211115
10Torino114251516-114
11Empoli1135389-114
12Roma113441214-213
13Hellas VeronaHellas Verona114071624-812
14Como122461323-1010
15Genoa12246922-1310
16CagliariCagliari11236919-109
17Parma111641417-39
18Monza111551014-48
19VeneziaVenezia112271019-98
20Lecce11227420-168


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