Although the Revs are missing some important players in attack, the contrasting fortunes only point towards a relatively straightforward home win at the weekend.
The visitors have only managed two goals so far this season and are lacking any confidence or momentum to pull off an upset on their travels.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New England Revolution win with a probability of 55.83%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 20.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a New England Revolution win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.18%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Sporting Kansas City win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New England Revolution would win this match.