The Sounders have never emerged victorious from an away playoff contest against the Toros, and we believe the home side will be a little more clinical in the attacking third this weekend and continue their stingy defensive work at Toyota Stadium.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dallas win with a probability of 43.28%. A win for Seattle Sounders had a probability of 30.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dallas win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Seattle Sounders win was 0-1 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Dallas would win this match.