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Manchester City logo
Champions League | Quarter-Finals
Apr 6, 2021 at 8pm UK
Etihad Stadium
Dortmund logo

Man City
2 - 1
Dortmund

De Bruyne (19'), Foden (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Reus (84')
Can (30'), Bellingham (37')

Preview: Manchester City vs. Borussia Dortmund - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League tie between Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Manchester City's pursuit of an unprecedented quadruple continues on Tuesday when they welcome Borussia Dortmund to the Etihad Stadium for the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final tie.

Pep Guardiola's side easily overcame Borussia Monchengladbach to advance to the last eight, while Dortmund made hard work of their battle with Sevilla, but they eventually got over the line to set up a tie with City.


Match preview

Benjamin Mendy celebrates scoring for Manchester City against Leicester City in the Premier League on April 3, 2021© Reuters

Pep Guardiola has downplayed Man City's chances of securing a quartet of trophies this season, but the Premier League leaders are inching ever closer to their first crown of the season after a dominant 2-0 win at Leicester City on Saturday evening.

City could not make their dominance count in the first 45 minutes, but second-half strikes from Benjamin Mendy and Gabriel Jesus saw the runaway leaders move 17 points clear at the top of the rankings, and another four wins from their remaining seven matches would see them wrestle the crown off Liverpool after a phenomenal campaign.

Guardiola's dominance of the Premier League has been evident for the past few years, but the former Barcelona and Bayern Munich boss is still waiting for that elusive first Champions League crown at the Etihad, and the Manchester giants have seen their European journeys end in the quarter-finals three seasons in a row.

However, a routine 4-0 aggregate win over Monchengladbach saw City ease into the last eight of the tournament before the international break, and Guardiola's side have now kept seven Champions League clean sheets in succession.

Only Arsenal in the 2005-06 season have enjoyed a longer run without their defence being breached in the competition, and City enjoy playing Bundesliga sides too, as they have come up trumps in 10 of their last 11 meetings with German teams in the Champions League, but Dortmund and their much-coveted centre-forward are intent on upsetting the apple cart this week.

Erling Braut Haaland in action for Borussia Dortmund on March 9, 2021© Reuters

Erling Braut Haaland is gearing up to visit one of his many admirers this week, as the Norway international steps out onto the turf where the man he could very well be replacing - Sergio Aguero - has starred for the past 10 years.

Haaland has already broken the record for the quickest time to hit 20 goals in the Champions League, and having netted in his last six continental appearances for Dortmund, he could follow in the footsteps of Cristiano Ronaldo, Robert Lewandowski, Edinson Cavani and Ruud van Nistelrooy if he scores for the seventh game running at the Etihad.

That will be easier said than done against City's resilient rearguard, and Dortmund also go into this game following a worrying result in the Bundesliga, as Haaland drew a blank while Andre Silva popped up with a late winner for Eintracht Frankfurt in a 2-1 win for Adi Hutter's side on Saturday.

With a top-four finish looking increasingly unlikely for Edin Terzic's men, they must somehow attempt to go all the way in this season's Champions League, but the Black and Yellow have not advanced past the quarter-final stage since the 2012-13 season, where Bayern Munich beat them in the final.

Furthermore, Terzic's side have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last four Champions League battles and only just scraped past Sevilla in the last-16 stage, as a 3-2 away triumph preceded a 2-2 draw in the second leg to see Dortmund progress 5-4 on aggregate.

Dortmund do travel to England unbeaten in seven in the Champions League, though, and the two sides have locked horns twice before in the 2012-13 group stage, where Man City held Dortmund to a 1-1 draw at home before losing 1-0 in Germany.

Manchester City Champions League form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W

Manchester City form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Borussia Dortmund Champions League form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D

Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • L



Team News

Manchester City forward Raheem Sterling pictured on January 17, 2021© Reuters

Guardiola is once again blessed with a fully-fit and available contingent for the first leg, but Joao Cancelo and Fernandinho will both be ruled out of the return leg if they play and pick up a booking on Tuesday.

The latter is likely to drop out for the returning Ilkay Gundogan anyway, but Cancelo should earn a place in defence ahead of Kyle Walker, and Mendy will not want to be dropped after his well-taken opener against Leicester.

Bernardo Silva and Raheem Sterling are both likely to return to the attack, while Phil Foden is another candidate to be rotated into the side, as no risks are to be taken over the fitness of soon-to-be free agent Sergio Aguero.

Former Man City starlet Jadon Sancho will play no part against his former employers due to a thigh problem, although there is optimism over his availability for the second leg on April 14.

Arsenal-linked defender Dan-Axel Zagadou and Axel Witsel also occupy spots in the treatment room, while Nico Schulz is likely to lose his place at left-back to Raphael Guerreiro after his own goal at the weekend.

Haaland is also one booking away from a ban but would never be dropped for this game, while Jude Bellingham and Emre Can will both be hopeful of earning starts on their returns to English soil.

Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Cancelo, Dias, Stones, Mendy; Rodri, Gundogan, De Bruyne; Silva, Sterling, Foden

Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Hitz; Can, Akanji, Hummels, Guerreiro; Delaney, Bellingham, Dahoud; Hazard, Haaland, Reus


SM words green background

We say: Manchester City 2-1 Borussia Dortmund

With only one win to boast from their last five matches, compared to City's perfect record in that period, Dortmund are not exactly high on confidence. Haaland is always capable of popping up with a crucial goal for the Black and Yellow, but a fully-fit and in-form City can sweep aside almost anything in their path, so we can only back a first-leg triumph for Guardiola's men.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 62.86%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.36%) and 3-1 (7.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.43%), while for a Borussia Dortmund win it was 1-2 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Manchester City in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Man City vs Dortmund

Manchester City
72.7%
Draw
9.2%
Borussia Dortmund
18.1%
598
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Erling Braut Haaland in action for Borussia Dortmund on February 2, 2021
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