With the scores level after last week's first leg, Dinamo Zagreb visit Legia Warsaw at Stadion Wojska Polskiego on Tuesday, looking to seal progress through the penultimate stage of the Champions League qualifiers.
Though a closely contested opening encounter has left this third qualifying round tie in the balance, the Croatian champions are expecting to secure a fourth group stage participation in seven years.
Match preview
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Trouble off the pitch preceded Dinamo Zagreb's latest step on the ladder to potential Champions League qualification, as ugly scenes broke out in the Croatian capital last week, when their notorious 'Bad Blue Boys' ultras clashed with Legia Warsaw fans ahead of the first leg at Stadion Maksimir.
While more than 200 people were involved in beating each other with batons, throwing stones and lit flares, on the field it proved a more civilised affair, as Dinamo were held to a 1-1 draw. Though the Modri took the lead in the 60th minute, through a Bruno Petkovic goal, Legia's Ernest Muci equalised in the dying minutes of a game which coach Damir Krznar later claimed they should have won.
Having had several opportunities to extend their lead to 2-0, Dinamo's frustration will at least be tempered by the fact that an away goal no longer counts double in the event of an aggregate draw - a situation which Krznar believes will promote more attacking football.
Regardless of the outcome against Legia this week, last season's Europa League quarter-finalists have already secured a spot in continental competition this autumn, as if they come away from Poland with a positive result, they will qualify for a playoff against Red Star Belgrade or Moldovan club Sheriff.
The winner of that tie would be handed a place in the Champions League group stage; the loser a Europa League playoff place. In fact, if the Croatian club were then to lose in those playoffs, they would at least receive the grim consolation prize of a Conference League campaign.
Domestic title-winners for four consecutive seasons, Dinamo kicked off their qualification campaign with four straight wins, though have started relatively slowly in the Prva HNL, with just four points from a possible nine leaving them seventh in the early-season standings.
Nonetheless, given their recent European pedigree, standards are high at the 22-time national champions, so Europe's elite competition is where they expect to be by the end of the month.
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Ever since claiming their 15th domestic title with three rounds to spare last season, Czeslaw Michniewicz's Legia side have had at least one eye on a place back in the big time too.
Like Dinamo, the reigning Polish champions progressed to the third qualifying round without any real jeopardy, having first seen off Bodo/Glimt - winning home and away against the Norwegian outfit - before beating Estonia's FC Flora at the second round stage.
They may have topped the Ekstraklasa last term, while losing just one competitive home game in 2021, but Legia will now seek to improve their status on the European stage after last week's result in Zagreb.
Having last competed in the Champions League group stage back in 2016, the Legionisci crashed out of the Champions League qualifiers in the second round last year, before losing to Qarabag in the Europa League playoffs.
To avoid slipping into the equivalent fixture this time around, Michniewicz's men will have to perform better than in their last league outing - a shock 3-1 loss versus Radomiak Radom after being reduced to nine men - though at least have had a whole week to prepare, having been spared domestic duty at the weekend.
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Team News
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Dinamo forward Mislav Orsic - who featured for Croatia at the Euros this summer and notched a hat-trick against Tottenham Hotspur in last season's Europa League - forms part of a dynamic attack for the visitors, who have racked up 36 goals from their last 13 games.
Left-sided Orsic is expected to combine with Bruno Petkovic up front in Warsaw - with Luka Ivanusec starting on the right - and Swiss striker Mario Gavranovic provides another option from the bench.
Head coach Damir Krznar still has concerns over the availability of captain Arijan Ademi - who was forced off in the previous qualifying round with a thigh injury - so Josip Misic could again join Kristijan Jakic in the Dinamo engine room.
Legia, meanwhile, will continue to benefit from the vast European experience of former Celtic goalkeeper Artur Boruc - now aged 41 - as he starts behind a probable back three for the home side.
Azeri forward Mahir Emreli should lead the line in a 3-4-3 formation, though Albanian youngster Ernest Muci is in contention to start after impressing coach Czeslaw Michniewicz with his late equaliser as a substitute last week.
Winger Bartosz Kapustka is now confirmed as a long-term injury absentee, after he was withdrawn just minutes after scoring against Flora in the previous round amid unfortunate circumstances - being ruled out for several months with a cruciate ligament tear sustained while celebrating his stunning solo goal by jumping into the crowd.
Legia Warsaw possible starting lineup:
Boruc; Wieteska, Nawrocki, Jedrzejczyk; Juranovic, Martins, Slisz, Mladenovic; Luquinhas, Emreli, Muci
Dinamo Zagreb possible starting lineup:
Livakovic; Ristovski, Theophile-Catherine, Lauritsen, Franjic; Jakic; Ivanusec, Majer, Misic, Orsic; Petkovic
We say: Legia Warsaw 2-2 Dinamo Zagreb (3-3 on aggregate; Dinamo win on penalties)
Though Dinamo are always a threat in the final third and boast great individual quality up front, Legia have been near-invincible on home soil this year and can certainly breach the visitors' defence at least once.
This well-matched tie could therefore go all the way, with penalties perhaps required to decide which continental competition each side turns out in during the coming weeks.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dinamo Zagreb win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for Legia Warsaw had a probability of 34.48% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dinamo Zagreb win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.25%) and 0-2 (5.97%). The likeliest Legia Warsaw win was 2-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dinamo Zagreb would win this match.
