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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 54.47%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 22.89% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.37%) and 0-2 (8.72%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 2-1 (5.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 5-4 was predicted with a 0% likelihood.
Result | ||
Colchester United | Draw | Notts County |
22.89% ( -0.06) | 22.63% ( -0.01) | 54.47% ( 0.06) |
Both teams to score 57.1% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.41% ( -0.03) | 42.59% ( 0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.01% ( -0.03) | 64.99% ( 0.03) |
Colchester United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.63% ( -0.06) | 32.37% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.12% ( -0.08) | 68.88% ( 0.08) |
Notts County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.43% ( 0.01) | 15.57% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.47% ( 0.02) | 44.52% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Colchester United | Draw | Notts County |
2-1 @ 5.96% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 5.68% ( -0) 2-0 @ 3.21% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.24% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.09% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.21% ( -0) Other @ 2.5% Total : 22.89% | 1-1 @ 10.57% 2-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.04% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0) Other @ 0.19% Total : 22.63% | 1-2 @ 9.83% ( 0) 0-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 8.72% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 6.1% ( 0) 0-3 @ 5.4% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.44% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.84% ( 0) 0-4 @ 2.51% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.6% ( -0) 1-5 @ 1.05% ( 0) 0-5 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 2.68% Total : 54.48% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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