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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 47.14%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 28.23% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 0-1 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Reading would win this match.
Result | ||
Reading | Draw | Burton Albion |
47.14% ( -3.87) | 24.63% ( 0.45) | 28.23% ( 3.42) |
Both teams to score 55.76% ( 1.53) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.17% ( 0.62) | 46.83% ( -0.62) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.92% ( 0.58) | 69.08% ( -0.57) |
Reading Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.06% ( -1.33) | 19.94% ( 1.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.91% ( -2.18) | 52.09% ( 2.19) |
Burton Albion Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.65% ( 3.02) | 30.35% ( -3.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.46% ( 3.45) | 66.54% ( -3.45) |
Score Analysis |
Reading | Draw | Burton Albion |
1-0 @ 9.76% ( -0.68) 2-1 @ 9.38% ( -0.25) 2-0 @ 7.87% ( -0.91) 3-1 @ 5.04% ( -0.36) 3-0 @ 4.23% ( -0.69) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.03% ( -0.24) 4-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.36) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.91% Total : 47.14% | 1-1 @ 11.63% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 6.05% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 5.59% ( 0.31) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.63% | 0-1 @ 7.22% ( 0.4) 1-2 @ 6.94% ( 0.65) 0-2 @ 4.3% ( 0.56) 1-3 @ 2.76% ( 0.46) 2-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.29) 0-3 @ 1.71% ( 0.34) Other @ 3.09% Total : 28.23% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
2 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 30 |
3 | Wrexham | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 28 |
4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 17 | 9 | 27 |
5 | Barnsley | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 26 |
6 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 26 |
7 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 24 |
8 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 23 |
9 | Exeter CityExeter | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Reading | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 23 |
11 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 23 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 27 | 4 | 21 |
13 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 19 |
14 | Bristol Rovers | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 18 |
15 | Stevenage | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 18 |
16 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 17 |
17 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 17 |
18 | Blackpool | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 17 |
19 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14 |
20 | Leyton Orient | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 14 |
21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 13 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 11 |
23 | Burton Albion | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 8 |
24 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 8 |
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