What had at one point looked like it was going to be a horrific campaign for Istanbul Basaksehir, the Boz Baykuslar look set to squeeze into a European qualification spot.
Currently occupying one of the Europa Conference League slots, a gap of five points separates Basaksehir from fifth-placed Adana Demirspor and they will be keen to improve on that when they face Kasimpasa this weekend.
Match preview
In pole position to qualify for Europe next season, Basaksehir have remarkably transformed a campaign that at one point looked destined for mediocrity.
Winless after their opening four matches of the season, a struggling Basaksehir side were as low as 15th back in October, before a run of positive results catapulted them up the table.
A fixture in the top four since the beginning of the year, Basaksehir's transformation has left them on the brink of being able to salvage their season.
By no means are Basaksehir the only big name in Turkish football to have struggled this season, but the Istanbul-based club are set to beat rivals Besiktas and Galatasaray to a European spot.
Hoping to steal three points and open the door for the chasers below are Kasimpasa, who will end the campaign in the comfort of mid-table.
Occupying 11th position heading into the weekend's action, a tally of 13 wins and 13 defeats provides a touch of symmetry to what has been a solid Kasimpasa campaign.
Winners in their last two Super Lig outings, Kasimpasa will be confident of hurting their visitors, despite their typically shaky record against Basaksehir.
Kasimpasa last triumphed during a Super Lig contest against Basaksehir all the way back in July 2020, with the European hopefuls looking to record another positive result.
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Team News
Basaksehir's chances of securing a European spot remain strong, but they will be forced to do it without Youssouf Ndayishimiye.
The midfielder will be absent for the match, with Mahmut Tekdemir and Tolga Cigerci operating in the Basaksehir engine room.
For Kasimpasa, their missing list is a little longer, with duo Mortadha Ben Ouanes and Rayane Aabid missing for the hosts due to a suspension.
Elsewhere, Sakib Aytac is nursing a muscle problem and will be missing for Saturday's match, but should return in the early days of May.
The same cannot be said for either Uros Spajic or Tarkan Serbest, who are both out for the season due to ACL injuries.
Kasimpasa possible starting lineup:
Taskiran; Bruma, Donk, Brecka, Hadergjonaj; Haspolat, Hajradinovic, Torun; Fall, Elmali; Muleka
Istanbul Basaksehir possible starting lineup:
Babacan; Caicara, Duarte, Epureanu, Lima; Tekdemir, Cigerci; Turuc, Aleksic, Trezeguet; Gulbrandsen
We say: Kasimpasa 1-2 Istanbul Basaksehir
Hoping to end the season in different form to how they started it, a victory will go a long way to securing Basaksehir's position in Europe.
Kasimpasa will provide a stubborn test, but a Basaksehir victory remains the most likely outcome this weekend.
Top tip
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Istanbul Basaksehir win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Kasimpasa had a probability of 33.32% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Istanbul Basaksehir win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.85%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Kasimpasa win was 1-0 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Istanbul Basaksehir would win this match.
