Istanbul Basaksehir and Caykur Rizespor meet in Super Lig on Sunday afternoon with both teams occupying places in the relegation zone.
Despite the home side having one more win to their name, these two sides have lost five of their opening six matches in 2021-22.
Match preview
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Having producing a storming end to the last campaign, everyone associated with Istanbul would have expected the club to be competing for the top four this time around.
However, five defeats - all by a one-goal margin - have left the Gray Owls sitting in the relegation zone with just three points and four strikes to their name.
Even the best clubs in the division have dropped points in at least two games, a scenario which has ensured that Aykut Kocaman does not have to panic about his team's current situation.
Nevertheless, the pressure is on to record another three points, particularly against opponents who find themselves in a similar situation.
Istanbul slipped to a 1-0 reverse at Gaziantep FK on Wednesday, the solitary goal being scored in a record-breaking 10 seconds.
The sole positive of Rizespor's season came on the second weekend when they claimed a goalless draw against Fatih Karagumruk.
While the Black Sea Sparrowhawk can claim to possess a better attack than Istanbul, Bulent Uygun will be concerned about 10 goals being conceded during their last four fixtures.
In three of those games, Rizespor only got themselves on the scoresheet when facing a two-goal deficit, a trend which cannot continue in the long run.
Yannick Bolasie has made an impression since his arrival last month, the former Everton winger finding the back of the net against Altay earlier this week.
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Team News
With Sener Ozbayrakli a first-half withdrawal in the game earlier this week, Kocaman has decisions to make regarding his defence.
Carlos Ponck or Leo Duarte could deputise at right-back, while Youssouf Ndayishimiye, Deniz Turuc and Danijel Aleksic are also pushing for opportunities.
Having made three substitute appearances this season, Nacer Chadli could finally be handed his first start.
Rizespor are likely to be forced into at least one alteration with Selim Ay in line to replace the injured Fabricio Baiano in defence.
Tyler Boyd and Aminu Umar are also options for Uygun as he contemplates changes in the final third.
Istanbul Basaksehir possible starting lineup:
Babacan; Ponck, Duarte, Ndayishimiye, Lima; Chadli, Aleksic, Cigerci, Tekdemir, Turuc; Okaka
Caykur Rizespor possible starting lineup:
Akkan; Gonul, Ay, Holmen, Koc; Djokovic, Sabo; Boyd, Potuk, Bolasie; Umar
We say: Istanbul Basaksehir 2-1 Caykur Rizespor
At some point this season, Istanbul will surely show their true qualities and move up the standings. While that may not necessarily occur this weekend, we still expect the home side to have enough in the tank to prevail from this contest with three points.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Istanbul Basaksehir win with a probability of 60.04%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Caykur Rizespor had a probability of 17.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Istanbul Basaksehir win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.24%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.69%), while for a Caykur Rizespor win it was 0-1 (5.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Istanbul Basaksehir would win this match.
