International Friendly

Sep 28, 2022 at 1am UK

Audi Field

El Salvador
1 - 4
Peru

Larin (34' pen.)

FT(HT: 1-2)

Zavaleta (19' og.), Lapadula (40' pen.), Reyna (81'), Cueva (86' pen.)
Cartagena (67')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's International Friendlies clash between Peru and El Salvador, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Peru

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Mexico 1-0 Peru
Sunday, September 25 at 2am in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	4	8	10
2	Peru	4	-2	7
3	Colombia	4	-1	4
4	Ecuador	4	-1	3
5	Venezuela	4	-4	2

El Salvador

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: El Salvador 1-1 USA
Wednesday, June 15 at 3am in CONCACAF Nations League

With El Salvador having a much more settled side and Peru having a manager who is only taking charge of his second game for the national team, there is a chance for El Salvador to pick up a really good result here. After their draw against the USA, a win in this fixture could definitely be on the cards. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peru win with a probability of 37.15%. A win for El Salvador had a probability of 36.49% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Peru win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest El Salvador win was 1-0 (9.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Peru would win this match.

Result
El Salvador	Draw	Peru
36.49% ( -20.13)	26.37% ( 1.16)	37.15% ( 18.97)

Both teams to score 53% (

10.41)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.26% (

6.61)

51.74% (

-6.62)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.49% (

5.46)

73.51% (

-5.46)

El Salvador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.61% (

-6.75)

27.39% (

6.75)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.14% (

-9.65)

62.86% (

9.65)

Peru Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.99% (

19.32)

27.01% (

-19.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.64% (

19.61)

62.36% (

-19.62)

Score Analysis

El Salvador 36.49%

Peru 37.15%

Draw 26.37%

El Salvador	Draw	Peru
1-0 @ 9.58% ( -5.5) 2-1 @ 8.12% ( -1.04) 2-0 @ 6.2% ( -5.7) 3-1 @ 3.51% ( -1.31) 3-0 @ 2.68% ( -3.58) 3-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.44) 4-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.77) Other @ 2.97% Total : 36.49%	1-1 @ 12.54% ( 0.93) 0-0 @ 7.4% ( -2.17) 2-2 @ 5.32% ( 1.79) 3-3 @ 1% ( 0.53) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.37%	0-1 @ 9.68% ( 2.32) 1-2 @ 8.21% ( 3.74) 0-2 @ 6.34% ( 3.51) 1-3 @ 3.58% ( 2.44) 0-3 @ 2.77% ( 2.04) 2-3 @ 2.32% ( 1.42) 1-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.95) 0-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.77) Other @ 2.18% Total : 37.15%