Genoa and Cagliari square off in Serie A on Sunday evening know that the fixture at Stadio Luigi Ferraris is arguably the most important of both their seasons.
With five games remaining, 18th-placed Genoa trail Cagliari, who sit directly above them and the relegation zone, by six points and realistically require maximum points given their previous efforts this season.
Match preview
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When Genoa went eight matches without suffering a defeat soon after the turn of the year, the great escape was very much on under recently-appointed boss Alexander Blessin.
However, that momentum was seemingly lost during the international break, Genoa having since lost to Verona, Lazio and AC Milan.
Although the level of opponent should be noted, it does not change the fact that Il Grifone, a team with two league wins in 33 games, are now on the brink of relegation.
A major positive is that Genoa square off against the teams directly above them in their next two fixtures, meaning that back-to-back victories would dramatically change the course of the battle for survival.
With just one Genoa player scoring a goal in seven games, that appears unlikely, but these fixtures will be treated as cup finals by a club who have been in the top flight since 2007.
From Cagliari's perspective, a recent five-game losing streak has kept them very much in the mix for relegation, and they are still contenders to drop down to Serie B.
Nevertheless, last week's 1-0 triumph over Sassuolo felt hugely significant in the grand scheme of things, the decisive strike coming from Alessandro Deiola just before half time.
Walter Mazzarri will certainly not get carried away with the change in fortunes, but he will recognise that the result has upped the stakes for their hosts ahead of this contest.
This is the first of three matches that Gli Isolani still have to play against teams in the relegation zone, however, and it highlights that they can ill-afford any slip-ups despite the six-point advantage that they currently possess over the bottom three.
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Team News
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Blessin is expected to make changes to his Genoa XI, including handing a recall to forward Mattia Destro.
Filippo Melegoni is an option in a creative role behind the main forward, but Kelvin Yeboah may remain among the replacements as the wait for his first goal continues.
This game is expected to come too soon for injured trio Nicolo Rovella, Andrea Cambiaso and Zinho Vanheusden.
Mazzarri will be forced into at least one alteration to his Cagliari starting lineup with Matteo Lovato serving a suspension for five yellow cards.
Luca Ceppitelli, who has not played 90 minutes this calendar year, and Charalampos Lykogiannis are options to come into the side in what may be the only change.
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Sirigu; Hefti, Bani, Ostigard, Vasquez; Frendrup, Badelj, Galdames; Ekuban, Amiri; Destro
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Altare, Ceppitelli, Carboni; Bellanova, Martin, Grassi, Deiola, Dalbert; Balde, Pedro
We say: Genoa 1-1 Cagliari
Genoa are past the point where draws are any use to them and must go all out for maximum points against direct rivals, particularly with the game being on home territory. Nevertheless, Cagliari will treat this fixture as a must-not-lose, and we are backing the visitors to claim a hard-earned share of the spoils.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 41.35%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 31.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (9.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Genoa in this match.
