Two struggling sides meet at Stadio Artemio Franchi on Sunday, as faltering Fiorentina host Serie A crisis club Parma, with relegation a very real possibility for both teams.
While the Viola have won only one of their last six matches, being sucked to within five points of the drop zone, their desperate visitors have now gone a club-record 16 games without victory.
Match preview
© Reuters
Following another defeat in midweek, rudderless Fiorentina continue to coast through the season and the Tuscan club remain in some danger of drifting towards a disastrous demotion to Serie B. Opponents Roma could even afford to gift Cesare Prandelli's men an own goal in the second half, before going on to wrap up a merited 2-1 victory at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Once again, Fiorentina's powder-puff attack were ineffective and veteran forward Franck Ribery, whose form has tailed off in recent times, visibly demonstrated his frustration when substituted in the final minutes of a tepid display.
Suspended this weekend, Ribery's contract expires at the end of the season and the 37-year-old now seems unlikely to extend his stay in Florence, particularly when his relationship with Prandelli is rumoured to be frosty at best. Italian sports media have also suggested that the one-time Azzurri coach could depart at the end of the campaign too, after his return to the Viola dugout proved an entirely underwhelming venture.
That sense of drift has surely contributed to a meagre tally of 25 points from as many games this season - in the three-points-for-a win era, only in 2001-02 (when they were eventually relegated) has the club picked up fewer in Serie A at this stage. Their haul of 26 goals is far from impressive too - only Crotone, Benevento and this Sunday's opponents have accumulated fewer.
Ahead of Parma's visit, Fiorentina can at least take encouragement from the strength of their form at the Franchi this term. In fact, when taking only home results into account, they would actually sit ninth in the league table - meanwhile, the Crociati have won just once on the road so far.
© Reuters
The last time Parma experienced that elusive winning feeling was as long ago as last November, against Genoa. Indeed, that was their second win in a row, having progressed in the Coppa Italia just days before, but there has not been a solitary success for the Gialloblu since.
Ruthless leaders Inter were the latest team to divest the Ducali of some much-needed points, with their 2-1 midweek win at Stadio Ennio Tardini leaving the hapless hosts stranded in 19th spot in the standings - six points adrift of safety.
As if their task on Thursday was not tough enough, Parma's misfiring attack - which had actually produced two goals in both of their previous games - was decimated by injuries for the Nerazzurri's visit.
Given the circumstances, under-fire coach Roberto D'Aversa - who, like Prandelli, has failed to reignite his club upon a mid-season return to the hot-seat - could treat that encounter and those upcoming against Roma and Milan without much pressure. Consecutive games against Fiorentina and Benevento, however, offer more realistic opportunities to claw themselves clear of a return to the second tier after three seasons back in the big time.
Having conceded goals in each of their last 19 away games in the top flight, stemming the tide defensively could be the only hope of ending their most dismal sequence of results at the elite level. Facing a similarly shot-shy strikeforce this weekend may prove a perfect place to start.
- D
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Cesare Prandelli will be without Franck Ribery's declining force in attack, so the suspended Frenchman could be replaced by his compatriot Valentin Eysseric alongside top scorer Dusan Vlahovic in the Fiorentina front line. Alternative option Christian Kouame will still be sidelined with a thigh injury.
Another creative force who has been short of form for a while, Gaetano Castrovilli, came off with a thigh issue of his own last time out and either Giacomo Bonaventura - if fit - or Borja Valero is therefore expected to fill in. Versatile defender Igor also limped off versus Roma, so Cristiano Biraghi could be called upon to feature at wing-back.
Parma coach Roberto D'Aversa has an ongoing injury headache to deal with - particularly in attack, as first-choices Gervinho and Andreas Cornelius will remain unavailable due to thigh strains and on-loan Joshua Zirkzee (back) continues to be a doubt ahead of the trip to Tuscany.
However, both Roberto Inglese and veteran striker Graziano Pelle were back on the bench in midweek, after significant spells out, so could feature at some stage. Unless either orthodox centre-forward is considered fit to start, either Juraj Kucka or Juan Brunetta could occupy a 'false nine' role, with support from Yann Karamoh out wide.
In defence, on-loan full-back Andrea Conti (also thigh) is struggling to recover in time, so either Yordan Osorio or Simone Iacoponi would deputise on the right of the visitors' back four if required.
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Dragowski; Milenkovic, Pezzella, Martinez Quarta; Venuti, Amrabat, Pulgar, Valero, Biraghi; Eysseric; Vlahovic
Parma possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Osorio, Bani, Alves, Gagliolo; Hernani, Brugman, Kurtic; Karamoh, Kucka, Mihaila
We say: Fiorentina 0-1 Parma
If not now, then when? This may be the day when Parma can finally close an unedifying chapter in their rollercoaster history with their first success in months.
Even considering their respectable home record, Fiorentina are more often than not a listless proposition and their incrementally improving visitors have enough options in their unwieldy squad to find a matchwinning goalscorer from somewhere, as their scrap for salvation goes on.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 49.81%. A win for Parma had a probability of 25.18% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.96%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
