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Everton logo
Premier League | Gameweek 9
Oct 23, 2021 at 3pm UK
Goodison Park
Watford logo

Everton
2 - 5
Watford

Davies (3'), Richarlison (63')
Digne (17'), Allan (54'), Richarlison (72'), Rondon (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-1)
King (13', 80', 86'), Kucka (78'), Dennis (90+1')
Troost-Ekong (44'), Dennis (70'), King (81')

Preview: Everton vs. Watford - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Everton and Watford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Watford will aim to avoid a second consecutive thrashing at the hands of a Merseyside outfit when they do battle with Everton at Goodison Park on Saturday afternoon.

Claudio Ranieri's side went down 5-0 to Liverpool last weekend, while the Toffees suffered a dampening defeat of their own to West Ham United on home soil.


Match preview

Everton manager Rafael Benitez gives instructions to his players on October 17, 2021© Reuters

As injuries begin to take their toll on Everton, Rafael Benitez's strong start to life back on Merseyside has taken quite the hit in recent weeks, with West Ham coming up trumps by a 1-0 scoreline in last weekend's clash between the two European hopefuls.

Angelo Ogbonna's 74th-minute header was all that separated the two sides on the day as Everton slipped to just their second defeat of the league season, but it is now just one win in four for Benitez's side in the top flight.

That underwhelming run of form has seen Everton's European aspirations take quite the early hit, as they now sit eighth in the table but are one of three teams level on 14 points with West Ham and an under-performing Manchester United side.

Defeat to West Ham prevented Everton from claiming a fifth Premier League win on the bounce on home soil, while last season's torrid fortunes at home means it is now eight league defeats at Goodison Park in 2021, leaving the Toffees at risk of recording their worst-ever Premier League record at home in a calendar year.

Furthermore, five of Everton's last eight home meetings with newly-promoted sides in the top flight have ended in defeat - another worrying statistic indeed - but their opponents will still be reliving their previous humiliation at the hands of the other half of the Merseyside duo.

Watford manager Claudio Ranieri before the match on October 16, 2021© Reuters

From Mohamed Salah's peach of an assist and world-class finish to Roberto Firmino's hat-trick, there was no shortage of joy for Liverpool at Vicarage Road, but it was truly a baptism of fire for Claudio Ranieri upon his return to the Premier League.

Watford's first game of the post-Xisco Munoz era was a humiliating affair for Ranieri and the rest of the Hornets contingent, one of which in Ben Foster has come under fire from fans and reportedly by the club for making light of the defeat on his YouTube channel.

Vlogs and The Cycling GK aside, Watford's worrying haul of one point from their last three Premier League games has seen them drop to 16th in the table after eight matches, and the sense of pessimism around Vicarage Road is certainly growing.

Victory at Norwich City represents the only positive aspect of Watford's top-flight away journeys so far this term - losing their other three on the road without scoring a single goal - and not since December 2018 have the Hornets claimed an away win against a top-half side.

Furthermore, Watford have suffered three consecutive defeats in their last three clashes with Everton in all competitions, and the Toffees have never lost a Premier League fixture at Goodison Park to their upcoming visitors - posting six wins and two draws from eight games in that hot streak.

Everton Premier League form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L

Everton form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L

Watford Premier League form:
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L

Watford form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L



Team News

Everton's Dominic Calvert-Lewin celebrates scoring their second goal on August 28, 2021© Reuters

Everton have been dealt another injury blow with Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who has suffered a setback in his recovery from a thigh problem and will remain sidelined for another few weeks.

Midfield maestro Abdoulaye Doucoure's strong start to the season has also been halted by a broken foot, while Fabian Delph and Andre Gomes's injuries have also depleted Benitez's ranks in the middle, but Richarlison is edging closer to a return.

Tom Davies will hope to get the nod alongside Allan with Doucoure sidelined, while Alex Iwobi's spot is at risk as Anthony Gordon seeks to force his way back into the XI.

The Spaniard also revealed that Yerry Mina has been nursing a hamstring problem since returning to training, and the Colombian will not feature here.

As for Watford, new signing Nicolas N'Koulou is unlikely to be ready for his debut just yet, while Christian Kabasele, Peter Etebo and Francisco Sierralta also occupy spots in the infirmary, while Kiko Femenia is a doubt.

Joshua King's ligament problem prevented him from playing a part against Liverpool, but the ex-Toffee could potentially play some part against his former club this week.

Ranieri will certainly ponder a change of shape and personnel after last weekend's humiliation, with Tom Cleverley and Joao Pedro hoping to come into contention for starts.

Everton possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Coleman, Keane, Godfrey, Digne; Townsend, Doucoure, Davies, Gordon; Gray, Rondon

Watford possible starting lineup:
Foster; Ngakia, Troost-Ekong, Cathcart, Rose; Kucka, Sissoko; Sarr, Cleverley, Dennis; Hernandez


SM words green background

We say: Everton 2-0 Watford

Watford have never won a Premier League game at Goodison Park and that is unlikely to change here, with the Hornets not experiencing any sort of a new manager bounce with Ranieri last week.

Everton's confidence has also been rocked in recent weeks as they work around a depleted squad, but Benitez's side ought to keep pace with the top seven by claiming maximum points here.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 45.59%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Watford had a probability of 26.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.94%) and 2-1 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.84%), while for a Watford win it was 0-1 (9.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Everton vs Watford

Everton
80.2%
Draw
11.9%
Watford
7.9%
253
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Everton's Abdoulaye Doucoure in action with Tottenham Hotspur's Erik Lamela on February 10, 2021
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2Manchester CityMan City1072121111023
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4Chelsea105322012818
5Arsenal105321711618
6Aston Villa105321715218
7Tottenham HotspurSpurs1051422111116
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton104421714316
9Fulham104331413115
10Bournemouth104331312115
11Newcastle UnitedNewcastle104331010015
12Brentford104151920-113
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd10334912-312
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham103251319-611
15Leicester CityLeicester102441418-410
16Everton102351017-79
17Crystal Palace10145813-57
18Ipswich TownIpswich100551021-115
19Southampton10118719-124
20Wolverhampton WanderersWolves100371427-133


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