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Europa League
Europa League | Group Stage
Sep 21, 2023 at 5.55pm UK
Stade Joseph Marien
Toulouse

Union SG
1 - 1
Toulouse

El Amine Amoura (69')
Vanhoutte (14'), Mac Allister (53'), Sadiki (78'), Blessin (81')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Dallinga (45+3' pen.)
Donnum (33'), Costa (66'), Magri (86')
Costa (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Union SG and Toulouse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union SG

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Union SG 0-2 Genk
Saturday, September 16 at 5.15pm in Belgian Pro League

Toulouse

All competitions
Last Game: Marseille 0-0 Toulouse
Sunday, September 17 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1

We said: Union SG 1-1 Toulouse

 Neither Union SG nor Toulouse are experiencing a purple patch of domestic form at the moment, but if last year is anything to go by, the 11-time Belgian champions are not to be underestimated on the European stage. Toulouse should also harness their knockout specialities from last year's Coupe de France success, but on this occasion, we are finding it nigh on impossible to separate the two teams and expect a low-key draw to be played out at the Constant Vanden Stock Stadium. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 44.58%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 30.43% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 0-1 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Union SGDrawToulouse
44.58% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06) 24.98% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01) 30.43% (0.071000000000002 0.07)
Both teams to score 55.97% (0.067 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.81% (0.07 0.07)47.19% (-0.067 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.58% (0.065999999999999 0.07)69.42% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)
Union SG Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.8% (0.0040000000000049 0)21.2% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.92% (0.0030000000000001 0)54.08%
Toulouse Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.02% (0.082999999999998 0.08)28.98% (-0.079999999999998 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.13% (0.102 0.1)64.87% (-0.099000000000004 -0.1)
Score Analysis
    Union SG 44.58%
    Toulouse 30.43%
    Draw 24.98%
Union SGDrawToulouse
1-0 @ 9.53% (-0.026999999999999 -0.03)
2-1 @ 9.16% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
2-0 @ 7.39% (-0.021 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.73% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-0 @ 3.82% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.93% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-1 @ 1.84% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 1.48% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.14% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 44.58%
1-1 @ 11.8%
0-0 @ 6.14% (-0.017 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.67% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.21% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 24.98%
0-1 @ 7.61% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
1-2 @ 7.31% (0.013 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.71% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.02% (0.012 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.34% (0.01 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.95% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
1-4 @ 0.94% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 30.43%

How you voted: Union SG vs Toulouse

Union SG
50.0%
Draw
33.3%
Toulouse
16.7%
36
rhs 2.0
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