With Lugano needing to adopt a gung-ho approach in order to keep the tie alive, gaps will open up for the Union SG attackers to exploit, and playing away from their familiar stadium will not do the hosts any favours either. While Croci-Torti's side should make one of their forays forward count for something, keeping the Union SG attack at bay will surely be too tall an order, as the Belgian side put their name in the pot for the Europa League group-stage draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 39.08%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 36.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.21%) and 0-2 (6.07%). The likeliest Lugano win was 2-1 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union SG would win this match.

Result
Lugano	Draw	Union SG
36.11% ( 0.01)	24.8%	39.08% ( -0)

Both teams to score 58.41% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.21% (

0.01)

44.79% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.85% (

0.01)

67.15% (

-0)

Lugano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.65% (

0.01)

24.35% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.25% (

0.01)

58.75% (

-0.01)

Union SG Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.21% (

22.79% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.51% (

56.49% (

Score Analysis

Lugano 36.11%

Union SG 39.08%

Draw 24.8%

Lugano	Draw	Union SG
2-1 @ 8.19% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.84% ( -0) 2-0 @ 5.54% 3-1 @ 3.86% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.85% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.61% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.36% 4-2 @ 1.01% ( 0) 4-0 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 1.95% Total : 36.11%	1-1 @ 11.59% 2-2 @ 6.06% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.55% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.41% Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.8%	1-2 @ 8.57% 0-1 @ 8.21% ( -0) 0-2 @ 6.07% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4.23% 0-3 @ 2.99% 2-3 @ 2.99% 1-4 @ 1.56% 0-4 @ 1.11% 2-4 @ 1.1% ( 0) Other @ 2.26% Total : 39.08%