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Europa League
Lugano
Europa League | Playoffs | 2nd Leg
Aug 31, 2023 at 7.30pm UK
Stadio di Cornaredo

Lugano
0 - 1
Union SG


Hajdari (40'), Bislimi (45')
Hajdari (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Eckert (6')
Lapoussin (38')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Lugano and Union SG, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lugano

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Union SG 2-0 Lugano
Thursday, August 24 at 7.30pm in Europa League

Union SG

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Union SG 2-0 Lugano
Thursday, August 24 at 7.30pm in Europa League

We said: Lugano 1-2 Union SG (Union SG win 4-1 on aggregate)

 With Lugano needing to adopt a gung-ho approach in order to keep the tie alive, gaps will open up for the Union SG attackers to exploit, and playing away from their familiar stadium will not do the hosts any favours either. While Croci-Torti's side should make one of their forays forward count for something, keeping the Union SG attack at bay will surely be too tall an order, as the Belgian side put their name in the pot for the Europa League group-stage draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 39.08%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 36.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.21%) and 0-2 (6.07%). The likeliest Lugano win was 2-1 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union SG would win this match.

Result
LuganoDrawUnion SG
36.11% (0.007000000000005 0.01) 24.8%39.08% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Both teams to score 58.41% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.21% (0.012 0.01)44.79% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.85% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)67.15% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Lugano Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.65% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)24.35% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.25% (0.012 0.01)58.75% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Union SG Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.21% (0.0049999999999955 0)22.79% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.51% (0.0039999999999978 0)56.49% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Score Analysis
    Lugano 36.11%
    Union SG 39.08%
    Draw 24.8%
LuganoDrawUnion SG
2-1 @ 8.19% (0.0010000000000012 0)
1-0 @ 7.84% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-0 @ 5.54%
3-1 @ 3.86% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 2.85% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 2.61% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-1 @ 1.36%
4-2 @ 1.01% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 0.92% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.95%
Total : 36.11%
1-1 @ 11.59%
2-2 @ 6.06% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-0 @ 5.55% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-3 @ 1.41%
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 24.8%
1-2 @ 8.57%
0-1 @ 8.21% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
0-2 @ 6.07% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 4.23%
0-3 @ 2.99%
2-3 @ 2.99%
1-4 @ 1.56%
0-4 @ 1.11%
2-4 @ 1.1% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.26%
Total : 39.08%

How you voted: Lugano vs Union SG

Lugano
20.8%
Draw
20.8%
Union SG
58.5%
53
Head to Head
Aug 24, 2023 7.30pm
Playoffs 1st Leg
Union SG
2-0
Lugano
Eckert (8'), Terho (71')
Eckert (42'), Mac Allister (67'), Nilsson (90+6')

Sabbatini (76')
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