We said: Sheriff Tiraspol 2-1 Servette
Neither side can afford to lose as they eye up the consolation prize of third place in Group G, but to have real hope of reaching the knockout phase, one must win on Thursday.
Thanks to home advantage and a greater wealth of recent European experience, Sheriff should secure maximum points.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sheriff Tiraspol win with a probability of 54.09%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Servette had a probability of 22.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sheriff Tiraspol win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.81%) and 2-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.97%), while for a Servette win it was 0-1 (6.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.