MX23RW : Tuesday, March 18 21:40:25| >> :600:245200:245200:
Ludogorets
Europa League | Third Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Aug 17, 2023 at 7pm UK
Huvepharma Arena (Razgrad)
Astana

Ludogorets
5 - 1
Astana

Tekpetey (25', 50'), Piotrowski (47', 58'), Despodov (67')
Goncalves (54')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Darboe (29')
Ebong (27'), Aymbetov (34'), Jovancic (43')
Jovancic (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Ludogorets Razgrad and Astana, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

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Last Game: Astana 2-1 Ludogorets
Tuesday, August 8 at 3pm in Europa League
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Last Game: Astana 2-1 Ludogorets
Tuesday, August 8 at 3pm in Europa League
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We said: Ludogorets Razgrad 2-0 Astana (Ludogorets win 3-2 on aggregate)

So far this season, Astana have failed to score at the same rate as last term, when they were crowned Kazakh champions. Despite finding the net twice on home soil, Thursday's visitors were shut out twice by Dinamo Zagreb, and if a talented Ludogorets side can keep the back door shut they are sure to overturn their deficit. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ludogorets Razgrad win with a probability of 69.97%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Astana had a probability of 11.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ludogorets Razgrad win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.51%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.9%), while for an Astana win it was 0-1 (4.2%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ludogorets Razgrad would win this match.

Result
Ludogorets RazgradDrawAstana
69.97% (0.069999999999993 0.07) 18.77% (-0.032 -0.03) 11.26% (-0.037000000000001 -0.04)
Both teams to score 44.75% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.73% (0.042000000000002 0.04)46.27% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.44% (0.038 0.04)68.56% (-0.037000000000006 -0.04)
Ludogorets Razgrad Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.97% (0.031000000000006 0.03)12.03% (-0.029 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.49% (0.064999999999998 0.06)37.51% (-0.064 -0.06)
Astana Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.87% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)49.13% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.95% (-0.029 -0.03)84.05% (0.028000000000006 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Ludogorets Razgrad 69.96%
    Astana 11.26%
    Draw 18.77%
Ludogorets RazgradDrawAstana
2-0 @ 13.25% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 12.51% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.42% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-0 @ 9.36% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
3-1 @ 6.65% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
4-0 @ 4.95% (0.016 0.02)
4-1 @ 3.52% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.36% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 2.1% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.49% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.25% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 3.09%
Total : 69.96%
1-1 @ 8.9% (-0.014999999999999 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.91% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 3.35% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Other @ 0.62%
Total : 18.77%
0-1 @ 4.2% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-2 @ 3.16% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.49% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 11.26%

How you voted: Ludogorets vs Astana

Ludogorets Razgrad
Draw
Astana
Ludogorets Razgrad
84.4%
Draw
11.1%
Astana
4.4%
45
Head to Head
Aug 8, 2023 3pm
Third Qualifying Round 1st Leg
Astana
2-1
Ludogorets
Tomasevic (40'), Marochkin (53')
Loncar (47'), Beysebekov (66'), Tomasevic (90+3')
Sonko-Sundberg (34')
Goncalves (47'), Verdon (87')
rhs 2.0
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