We said: Botev Plovdiv 0-1 Panathinaikos (Panathinaikos win 3-1 on aggregate)
All five of Botev Plovdiv's competitive games so far this term have seen Kerkez's men both score and concede, but we can envisage that streak being snapped as their Europa League journey comes to an end.
Panathinaikos can capitalise on their hosts' ongoing defensive vulnerabilities by striking first and sitting back to maintain a comfortable aggregate advantage, although Botev will still fall into a Europa Conference League safety net.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panathinaikos win with a probability of 59.79%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Botev Plovdiv had a probability of 18.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Panathinaikos win was 0-1 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.47%) and 1-2 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for a Botev Plovdiv win it was 1-0 (5.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Panathinaikos would win this match.
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