Emery will likely rotate his squad slightly to ensure they remain fresh, but they have quality in abundance and should still have more than enough to cruise to a victory on home soil. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 56.25%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Lech Poznan had a probability of 17.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.18%) and 2-1 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Lech Poznan win it was 0-1 (7.67%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.

Result
Villarreal	Draw	Lech Poznan
56.25% ( 0.08)	25.87% ( -0.1)	17.87% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 40.52% (

0.29)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.16% (

0.36)

60.84% (

-0.35)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.12% (

0.27)

80.87% (

-0.27)

Villarreal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.19% (

0.18)

21.8% (

-0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.98% (

0.27)

55.01% (

-0.27)

Lech Poznan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.82% (

0.25)

48.17% (

-0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.64% (

0.18)

83.36% (

-0.18)

Score Analysis

Villarreal 56.24%

Lech Poznan 17.87%

Draw 25.86%

Villarreal	Draw	Lech Poznan
1-0 @ 15.99% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 12.18% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.9% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 6.19% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 4.52% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.72% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.75% Total : 56.24%	1-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.5% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 3.25% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.43% Total : 25.86%	0-1 @ 7.67% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 4.27% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.8% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.1% Total : 17.87%