We said: Basel 2-0 CSKA Sofia (Basel win 2-1 on aggregate)
CSKA Sofia performed admirably to take a lead in their home leg and will be desperate to stay ahead, but we see the hosts having slightly too much and overturning the deficit in Switzerland.
Even without their players on top form so far this season, Frei will expect to see them outclass the Bulgarian visitors and book their spot in the group stage before the need for extra time.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 50.65%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for CSKA Sofia had a probability of 23.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.03%) and 2-1 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.3%), while for a CSKA Sofia win it was 0-1 (8.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Basel in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Basel.
-0.13) 
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