Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 50.64%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 26.55% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.16%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.