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[monks data]
Attendance: 20,368
Bristol City
Championship | Gameweek 32
Feb 12, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
 
Derby logo

3-2

Wells (38'), Benkovic (44'), Diedhiou (58')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Waghorn (61'), Martin (82')

Preview: Bristol City vs. Derby County - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole provides team news, predicted lineups and a full preview of Wednesday's Championship game between Bristol City and Derby County.

Bristol City play host to Derby County on Wednesday night looking to return to winning ways after suffering a surprise defeat at home to Birmingham City last week.

Meanwhile, Derby make the trip to Ashton Gate sitting just seven points adrift of the Championship playoffs after an improved run of form.


Match preview

Bristol City boss Lee Johnson on December 22, 2019© Reuters

After a run of four straight victories and clean sheets in the Championship, Lee Johnson would have expected that to become five in each category when taking an early lead against Birmingham last Friday.

However, the Robins capitulated in front of their own supporters, with a 3-1 defeat seeing the club drop out of the playoff places in a hotly-contested race for promotion.

City have made a habit of putting together winning and losing streaks during Johnson's reign, and the Bristol boss will acknowledge that their consistency and ruthlessness must improve heading into the important months of the season.

While the run of shutouts was naturally a huge plus for Johnson, just four goals have been scored in their last four games, potentially putting Nahki Wells in line for his first start for the club since joining on loan in January.

If the form of their opponents is anything to go by, Bristol will require a greater cutting edge in the final third in order to remain competitive against the Rams.

Derby have scored 13 times in their most recent four outings in all competitions, eight of which have come in the second halves of matches.

Despite Wayne Rooney chipping in with three strikes, Philip Cocu will be more satisfied with Martyn Waghorn and Chris Martin getting in on the act after Derby's struggles in front of goal earlier in the season.

Since December 30, the East Midlands outfit have recorded five wins and a draw from seven games, a run which has made the club an outside bet for promotion to the Premier League.

While Cocu will prefer to take one fixture at a time, the Dutchman will acknowledge that a positive result against one of their rivals could make all the difference at the end of the campaign.

Bristol City Championship form: LWWWWL
Bristol City form (all competitions): WLWWWL

Derby County Championship form: WDWLWW
Derby County form (all competitions): WDLWWW


Team News

Queens Park Rangers' Nahki Wells celebrates scoring their sixth goal on January 1, 2020© Reuters

With Famara Diedhiou failing to make an impression against Blues, Wells is expected to take his place in the middle of the attack.

Markus Henriksen is also likely to feature in the centre of midfield after completing a January move from Hull City.

While Tomas Kalas is nearing a return to action, Filip Benkovic could get the nod as a replacement for centre-back Nathan Baker.

After completing a suspension, Derby's Max Lowe could take the spot of Craig Forsyth at left-back.

Martin is also in line to return to the starting lineup, with Jason Knight potentially dropping down to the substitutes' bench.

Bristol City possible starting lineup:
Bentley; Hunt, Williams, Benkovic, Dasilva; Smith, Henriksen, Paterson; Eliasson, Weimann, Wells

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Hamer; Bogle, Clarke, Wisdom, Lowe; Rooney, Bird; Waghorn, Holmes, Lawrence; Martin


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Bristol City 2-2 Derby County

While Johnson's side will be motivated to get back on track, it is difficult to write off a Derby team who are now starting to live up to their potential. With those factors in mind, we feel that the two clubs could play out an entertaining draw.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 42.62%. A win for had a probability of 32.15% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest win was 0-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%).


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8Millwall156541813523
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City155732019122
11Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
12Derby CountyDerby155461919019
13Stoke CityStoke155461819-119
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15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds155371725-818
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