The final game in the MLS Cup playoffs opening round will feature Dallas hosting Minnesota United at Toyota Stadium.
Dallas ended the 2022 campaign in third place in the Western Conference, while the Loons sneaked into the postseason thanks to a 2-0 win on Decision Day versus the Vancouver Whitecaps.
Match preview
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After a one-year hiatus, the Toros are back in the postseason for the fourth time in the past five MLS campaigns.
Nico Estevez has turned this group into one of the most formidable defensive units in the league, conceding a mere 37 goals this year, second only to the Philadelphia Union (26).
Under the Spaniard, the Toros doubled their win total from 2021, claiming 14 victories this year and accumulating 53 points, their highest total in both categories since the 2018 campaign.
Monday will be their first time hosting a playoff game since 2018, while they have not won a postseason encounter in Frisco since 2016, beating the Seattle Sounders 2-1 on that occasion but still falling 4-2 on aggregate.
Dallas dropped only three games all season at Toyota Stadium, and Los Angeles FC were the only Western Conference side to lose fewer home fixtures this year, although one of the Toros' home defeats came against the Loons in May (2-1).
When Dallas manage to find their noses in front, they rarely let that lead slip away, losing only once when holding a second half advantage this year, while posting six shutout victories.
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They seemed to stumble near the tail end of the season, but Minnesota did just enough to clinch a playoff spot for a fourth successive campaign.
The Loons were trending in the right direction shortly after manager Adrian Heath saw his contract extended, losing only twice in 11 league fixtures from June until late August.
However, a 3-0 loss to Real Salt Lake to end the month of August sent them into a downward spiral where they went winless in six games but only needed to win one, which they did on Decision Day.
Despite possessing some outstanding individuals at every position, the Loons have rarely been able to put all of that talent into a system which can benefit the whole team.
Their encounter on Monday will be the third straight time they play a postseason match on the road, losing 3-1 to the Portland Timbers last year.
Minnesota have only been able to claim one victory at Toyota Stadium in their history, failing to find the back of the net on three occasions.
Team News
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Dallas striker Jesus Ferreira was named as a finalist for the MLS Young Player of the Year Award alongside Brenner and Thiago Almada.
In their final regular season encounter, Sebastian Lletget scored his first goal in a Toros uniform, while Paul Arriola notched a career-high 10th of the season in a 2-1 win over Sporting Kansas City.
Bernard Kamungo is out with a right ankle injury, while we saw three new faces to their starting 11 last Sunday as Arriola, Edwin Cerrillo and Ema Twumasi replaced Nanu, Facundo Quignon and Kalil ElMedkhar.
Dayne St. Clair stopped all seven Vancouver shots on target on Decision Day to collect his first MLS clean sheet since July, while Jonathan Gonzalez notched his first of the season in that encounter and Franco Fragapane scored for the first time since August.
The Loons are missing numerous players, including Patrick Weah, Bongokuhle Hlongwane and Hassani Dotson, who are all suffering from knee injuries.
Jacori Hayes remains on the sidelines for Minnesota because of a problem in his lower leg, and Bakaye Dibassy has a thigh injury.
Dallas possible starting lineup:
Paes; Twumasi, Hedges, Martinez, Farfan; Lletget, Quignon, Pomykal; Obrian, Ferreira, Arriola
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
St. Clair; Taylor, Boxall, Kallman, Lawrence; Lod, Trapp; Gonzalez, Reynoso, Fragapane; Amarilla
We say: Dallas 2-0 Minnesota United
All season long, Dallas' defence has been among the most impenetrable, and going up against a Minnesota team who have scored the fewest goals among the Western Conference playoff sides, we expect the Toros backline will remain firm.
An upset is certainly possible, but we believe that all 11 Loons players will need to play at an elite level for that to happen, and there are too many inconsistencies with this group to suggest they can beat a side who have been so well-organised and compact all season.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
