Rock-bottom Crotone anticipate the visit of fellow promoted side Spezia on Saturday, trailing the Ligurian club by eight points in the Serie A table after a winless start to the campaign.
The visitors have adapted to life in the top flight much more smoothly than Crotone, as Vincenzo Italiano's team have regularly picked up points and plaudits in reaching 15th, just two points outside the top half.
Match preview
© Reuters
Stadio Ezio Scida has not been a particularly happy home for Crotone since their promotion, as Giovanni Stroppa's strugglers have recorded a single draw and four defeats in their five games there to date.
Last week, Gli Squali were thumped 4-0 on home turf by likely Scudetto contenders Napoli, after Jacopo Petriccione was sent off for a high tackle on Diego Demme and they subsequently conceded three second-half goals.
Certainly, Crotone's opening fixture list has been unkind, with most of Serie A's biggest clubs summarily dismissing them - champions Juventus aside, as the sides fought out an unlikely 1-1 draw in October.
Stroppa must have looked at December's packed fixture list and considered that this could represent something of a restart to his team's stalled season. After Spezia's visit, they take on Udinese, Sampdoria and Parma - games from which they must retrieve at least a moderate handful of points if they are to avoid being cut adrift.
Though their defence has hardly been watertight, Crotone's chief problems have been in attack. Stroppa's profligate side have posted the worst shot conversion rate in Serie A so far this season, scoring with only six of their 96 shots - just 6.3%.
Regular strike partners Junior Messias (on 900) and Nigeria international Simy (893) are the two strikers with the most minutes played in Serie A this season, but have only registered four goals combined so far - two of which were from penalties.
No player throughout the league has completed more dribbles than Junior's 27 and the Brazilian forward has also attempted 27 shots so far - to little effect, however.
That must improve significantly this week, particularly in light of their latest visitors' upbeat mood and recent record at Ezio Scida. Spezia have won in their last two away matches at Crotone - 3-0 in December 2018 and 2-1 last January.
© Reuters
Vincenzo Italiano's side were most unfortunate in their defeat last week, at home to Lazio. The visitors' Sergej Milinkovic-Savic created a goal for Ciro Immobile and curled in an unstoppable free kick, but Lazio were made to labour for their 2-1 win, as the Bianconeri hit the woodwork twice and dominated possession - having two-thirds of the ball.
Spezia finally did get a thoroughly deserved goal through M'Bala Nzola, whose powerful run and left-foot strike into the corner was scant reward for their peppering of Pepe Reina's goal.
The former Liverpool goalkeeper later admitted Lazio were outplayed by "the better side" and home coach Italiano hailed his team's "best performance of the season."
However, often wasteful forwards Diego Farias and Kevin Agudelo must demonstrate a more clinical edge on Saturday, against a direct rival for survival. Frenchman N'Zola, previously plying his trade in the lower divisions, has adapted better to the challenge at hand - registering four goals and an assist in his first seven Serie A starts.
Spezia's first promotion to Serie A in their 114-year history was a moment savoured by many neutrals, as the unassuming Ligurian club made it to the promised land last summer. Their 19 bargain buys and loans signings since arrived from far and wide, in a transfer strategy that first appeared scattergun and doomed to fail.
However, the Bianconeri's start to life in the big time has impressed observers and suggests that they can at least fight against a swift return journey until the 2020-21 season's bitter end.
Crotone Serie A form: LLDLLL
Crotone form (all competitions): DLDLLL
Spezia Serie A form: DLWDDL
Spezia form (all competitions): LWDWDL
Team News
© Reuters
Midfielder Ahmad Benali came off after just half an hour against Napoli and will be missing for Crotone, as Giovanni Stroppa must do without important individuals for this crunch clash.
Benali, Andrea Rispoli and veteran Luca Cigarini will be absent through injury for the Gialloblu. Cigarini is not expected to return until the start of 2021, while fellow midfielder Jacopo Petriccione is suspended after his red card last week.
The Calabrian side are expected to persist with their usual 3-5-2, with misfiring duo Junior Messias and Simy again starting up front.
Vincenzo Italiano's Spezia injury list is even longer, with eight men unavailable, including on-loan Lucien Agoume, Elio Capradossi, striker Andrey Galabinov, Federico Mattiello, and ex-PSV goalkeeper Jeroen Zoet.
Tommaso Pobega should be ready to return to the bench, though he is unlikely to make the starting XI in Italiano's forward-thinking 4-3-3, which will be fronted by in-form M'Bala Nzola.
Crotone possible starting lineup:
Cordaz; Cuomo, Marrone, Luperto; Pereira, Zanellato, Vulic, Molina, Reca; Messias, Simy
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Ferrer, Terzi, Erlic, Bastoni; Estevez, Ricci, Maggiore; Gyasi, Nzola, Farias
We say: Crotone 1-1 Spezia
Crotone will bear all the pressure ahead of this important clash at the wrong end of the Serie A table, as their first win must feel further away than ever.
Opponents Spezia could take advantage of that fact, but are prone to wasting valuable chances due to penalty area profligacy and may just fail to get the job done once again.
Top betting tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 44.01%. A win for Crotone had a probability of 30.51% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.06%) and 0-2 (7.52%). The likeliest Crotone win was 1-0 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
