MX23RW : Wednesday, December 25 20:20:22| >> :120:7412:7412:
San Lorenzo
Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Jun 27, 2023 at 11pm UK
Estadio Pedro Bidegain

San Lorenzo
4 - 1
Estudiantes

Bareiro (45+4' pen., 55'), Braida (70'), Barrios (71')
Gattoni (7'), Insua (8'), Hernandez (38')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Arenas (3')
Canelon (58'), Martinez (61'), Guaramato (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between San Lorenzo and Estudiantes Merida, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

San Lorenzo

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Estudiantes 1-1 San Lorenzo
Wednesday, June 21 at 11pm in Argentine Primera Division

Estudiantes Merida

All competitions
Last Game: Estudiantes 1-0 Fortaleza
Tuesday, June 6 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana

We said: San Lorenzo 1-0 Estudiantes Merida

 Considering Estudiantes Merida have already been eliminated from the competition, they may not be as motivated as their opponents, who still have a chance of qualifying for the next round. As such, we expect San Lorenzo to eke out a victory, but given their recent struggles in front of goal, it is unlikely to be a high-scoring game. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 72.45%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Estudiantes Merida had a probability of 8.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (15.49%) and 3-0 (10.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.44%), while for a Estudiantes Merida win it was 0-1 (4.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that San Lorenzo would win this match.

Result
San LorenzoDrawEstudiantes Merida
72.45% (-0.10899999999999 -0.11) 18.71% (0.070999999999998 0.07) 8.84% (0.042 0.04)
Both teams to score 36.46% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.44% (-0.152 -0.15)52.56% (0.157 0.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.78% (-0.131 -0.13)74.22% (0.13499999999999 0.13)
San Lorenzo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.83% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)13.17% (0.081 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.12% (-0.159 -0.16)39.88% (0.163 0.16)
Estudiantes Merida Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
41.99% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)58.01% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
10.4% (0.00099999999999945 0)89.6% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Score Analysis
    San Lorenzo 72.43%
    Estudiantes Merida 8.84%
    Draw 18.71%
San LorenzoDrawEstudiantes Merida
2-0 @ 15.69%
1-0 @ 15.49% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
3-0 @ 10.6% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
2-1 @ 8.55%
3-1 @ 5.78% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-0 @ 5.38% (-0.031 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.93% (-0.017 -0.02)
5-0 @ 2.18% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.57% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.19% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 3.09%
Total : 72.43%
1-1 @ 8.44% (0.025 0.03)
0-0 @ 7.64% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
2-2 @ 2.33%
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 18.71%
0-1 @ 4.16% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
1-2 @ 2.3% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
0-2 @ 1.13% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 1.25%
Total : 8.84%

How you voted: San Lorenzo vs Estudiantes

San Lorenzo
75.0%
Draw
0.0%
Estudiantes Merida
25.0%
8
Head to Head
Apr 5, 2023 1am
Group Stage
Estudiantes
0-1
San Lorenzo
Gattoni (33')
rhs 2.0
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