Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 45%. A win for Melgar had a probability of 31.84% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.17%) and 2-0 (6.28%). The likeliest Melgar win was 1-2 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.