Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palestino win with a probability of 36.65%. A win for Portuguesa had a probability of 35.97% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palestino win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.96%) and 0-2 (6.56%). The likeliest Portuguesa win was 1-0 (10.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palestino would win this match.