Montpellier HSC will aim to book their spot in the quarter-finals of the Coupe de France when they travel to fourth-tier side Chateaubriant Voltigeurs for their last-16 clash on Wednesday evening.
The hosts overcame Romorantin 3-1 to advance to this stage of the tournament, while Montpellier dumped Olympique d'Ales out of the tournament to progress last month.
Match preview
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As Championnat National 2 clubs continue to be left in the dark over the future of their season, Chateaubriant are gearing up for their fifth Coupe de France clash in a row as the coronavirus pandemic threatens to curtail the league campaign for the fourth-division club.
This week's hosts last took to the pitch in the league all the way back in October, and the timing of the postponement could not have been worse for Daouda Leye and Florian Plantard's side, who still occupy second spot in the Group A table after taking 16 points from their first nine league games.
While their disrupted league season has offered plenty of promise, Chateaubriant have managed to advance to the last 16 of the Coupe de France for the first time in the club's history, as their previous two ventures have ended in the first and second rounds in the 2006-07 and 2019-20 seasons respectively.
Chateaubriant's cup run is all the more impressive considering that all four of their victories in the cup so far have come on the road, with Leye's and Plantard's side shipping only one goal in the tournament so far, and welcoming a Ligue 1 outfit to the 3,000-seater Stade de la Ville en Bois - albeit an empty one - is certainly an occasion to be celebrated, no matter what the scoreline reads after 90 minutes.
Stephy Mavididi once again produced the goods for Montpellier in their most recent battle, as the young Englishman broke the deadlock against Angers with his ninth goal of the season - and his fifth goal from six Ligue 1 games - at the Stade Raymond Kopa on Sunday.
Michel der Zakarian's men would ultimately only claim one point from that encounter as Stephane Bahoken continued his hot streak against La Paillade with a 72nd-minute equaliser, but that 1-1 stalemate represented Montpellier's 11th game without defeat after a marked improvement in fortunes since the beginning of February.
La Paillade have not given up on their European dream just yet, but the goal for this week will simply be to avoid the giant killing of all giant killings in the Coupe de France, where an unthinkable defeat could have serious consequences for their confidence heading into the final stretch.
Der Zakarian's side have dumped fellow Ligue 1 outfit Strasbourg and Championnat National 3 side Olympique d'Ales out of the tournament, but the manner of their victory over the minnows last time out was far from convincing, as a weakened team only just scraped a 2-1 success on March 6.
Unsurprisingly, Wednesday's game represents the inaugural meeting between Chateaubriant and Montpellier, and the visitors have a magnificent opportunity to reach the quarter-finals for the first time since the 2011-12 campaign - one which Der Zakarian will not allow them to pass up.
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Team News
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Chateaubriant opted for a five-man defence in their most recent clash with Romorantin, so Leye and Plantard are certainly expected to stick with that setup against a premier division side this week.
Captain David Vernet bagged a brace in their last-32 win and will continue to lead the line here, while Alexis Poissonneau could be rewarded for his late goal with a start over Sambou Soumano.
The man supporting the two strikers is likely to be Falimery Ramanamahefa, who also boasts two goals for the Madagascar national team in 2014 and 2018 World Cup qualification.
Montpellier are already without Ambroise Oyongo for the long-term, and Teji Savanier picked up a hip injury before the trip to Angers, although the midfielder's problem is not thought to be serious.
With a league match against Marseille to come, Der Zakarian will certainly field a much-changed team, as captain Hilton - who turns 44 this year - is granted a hard-earned rest alongside the likes of Andy Delort, Gaetan Laborde and Jonas Omlin.
Dimitry Bertaud, Pedro Mendes and Damien Le Tallec can all be hopeful of lining up from the first whistle, while 18-year-old Elye Wahi could be trusted to spearhead the Paillade attack.
Chateaubriant Voltigeurs possible starting lineup:
Milon; Artu, Gaudice, Wandji, Mukoko, Toure; Fayolle, Nunge; Ramanamahefa; Vernet, Poissonneau
Montpellier HSC possible starting lineup:
Bertaud; Souquet, Mendes, Vidal, Ristic; Le Tallec, Chotard; Dolly, Mollet, Yun; Wahi
We say: Chateaubriant Voltigeurs 0-3 Montpellier HSC
Chateaubriant will relish the opportunity to test themselves against the big boys, but this is surely where the fourth tier side's memorable journey ends. Der Zakarian is expected to leave most of his big hitters on the bench or at home, but Montpellier will simply have too much quality and should ease into the last eight of the competition.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 74.38%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Chateaubriant Voltigeurs had a probability of 8.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.64%) and 0-3 (10.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.94%), while for a Chateaubriant Voltigeurs win it was 1-0 (3.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.
