Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 49.9%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 22.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.4%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.54%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 0-1 (9.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Watford in this match.