Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 38.15%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 33.26% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.86%) and 0-2 (7.25%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 1-0 (11.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.