We said: Sheriff Tiraspol 1-3 Real Madrid
Despite losing against Sheriff two months ago, Real Madrid will head into Wednesday's fixture as the strong favourites to come away with all three points.
The hosts will likely frustrate Los Blancos one again and could cause problems in the final third, however, the visitors will be fired up to get the job done this time around and should have no problems in outscoring their opponents in Transnistria.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 60.54%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Sheriff Tiraspol had a probability of 18.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.43%) and 0-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.65%), while for a Sheriff Tiraspol win it was 2-1 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
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