How the first leg unfolded demonstrates that Galatasaray cannot expect to cruise through to the third round, with Zalgiris still very much alive in this qualifying contest. After shaking off the rust in their first competitive outing, though, Gala should improve back on home soil and do just enough to edge through. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Galatasaray win with a probability of 54.82%. A win for FK Zalgiris had a probability of 23.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Galatasaray win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.46%) and 1-0 (7.3%). The likeliest FK Zalgiris win was 1-2 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Galatasaray would win this match.

Result
Galatasaray	Draw	FK Zalgiris
54.82% ( 0.04)	21.32%	23.85% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 63.04% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.67% (

-0.04)

35.32% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.65% (

-0.04)

57.35% (

0.04)

Galatasaray Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.02% (

-0.01)

12.97% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.53% (

-0)

39.47%

FK Zalgiris Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.43% (

-0.05)

27.56% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.91% (

-0.07)

63.08% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Galatasaray 54.82%

FK Zalgiris 23.85%

Draw 21.32%

Galatasaray	Draw	FK Zalgiris
2-1 @ 9.61% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.46% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.54% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.08% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 4.22% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3.34% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.59% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.15% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.36% 5-0 @ 1.06% ( 0) 4-3 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 3.19% Total : 54.82%	1-1 @ 9.41% ( 0) 2-2 @ 6.19% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.58% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.81% ( -0) Other @ 0.33% Total : 21.32%	1-2 @ 6.06% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.61% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.97% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.61% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.28% ( -0) Other @ 3.67% Total : 23.85%