Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Dec 9, 2021 at 6pm UK

Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia

Atalanta
2 - 3
Villarreal

Malinovskyi (71'), Zapata (80')
Muriel (89')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Danjuma (3', 51'), Capoue (42')
Moreno (57'), Parejo (57')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Champions League clash between Atalanta BC and Villarreal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Atalanta BC 2-1 Villarreal

This is a very, very difficult game to call, and a strong case can be made for both sides to triumph on Thursday. Atalanta's recent form has been very impressive, though, and we are expecting the home team to collect all three points and secure their spot in the last-16 stage of the competition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 45.38%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 26.72%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.05%) and 2-1 (8.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.93%), while for a Villarreal win it was 0-1 (9.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.

Result
Atalanta BC	Draw	Villarreal
45.38%	27.9%	26.72%

Both teams to score 44.99%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.71%

60.28%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.54%

80.45%

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.45%

26.54%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.25%

61.75%

Villarreal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.25%

38.75%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.51%

75.48%

Score Analysis

Atalanta BC 45.37%

Villarreal 26.72%

Draw 27.89%

Atalanta BC	Draw	Villarreal
1-0 @ 13.64% 2-0 @ 9.05% 2-1 @ 8.58% 3-0 @ 4% 3-1 @ 3.79% 3-2 @ 1.8% 4-0 @ 1.33% 4-1 @ 1.26% Other @ 1.93% Total : 45.37%	1-1 @ 12.93% 0-0 @ 10.28% 2-2 @ 4.07% Other @ 0.62% Total : 27.89%	0-1 @ 9.75% 1-2 @ 6.13% 0-2 @ 4.62% 1-3 @ 1.94% 0-3 @ 1.46% 2-3 @ 1.29% Other @ 1.53% Total : 26.72%