Cardiff City head into their final-day clash with League One-bound Hull City knowing that their Championship playoff fate is in their own hands.
The Bluebirds need a point to guarantee a top-six finish, while Hull are also in need of all three points - plus a helping hand from elsewhere - to have any hope of avoiding relegation.
Match preview
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Five wins and a draw from their eight matches since returning to action last month has lifted Cardiff into the fourth and final playoff spot.
The most recent of those wins came away at former manager Neil Warnock's Middlesbrough on Saturday, with Josh Murphy scoring twice to add to Sean Morrison's nerve-settling opener.
That came on the back of an equally important 2-1 home win over Derby County, which now leaves Neil Harris's men three points clear of bitter rivals Swansea City.
The Swans are the only side that can catch Cardiff, while Nottingham Forest - level on points with the Bluebirds - also have work to do against Stoke City on the final day.
Cardiff are unbeaten on the final day of the season in each of the last five years, most recently beating Manchester United 2-0 at Old Trafford in 2019.
That defeat was not enough to prevent them from being relegated, but an immediate return is now on the cards if they can first get themselves over the playoff line.
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If they are to achieve that then they need only a draw against Hull, who require snookers if they are to avoid playing in the third tier for the first time since 2005.
Not only do the Tigers have to win in Wales, they need Luton Town to lose to Blackburn Rovers, Fulham to avoid defeat at Wigan Athletic and Barnsley to drop points at Brentford.
Hull may easily fall at the first hurdle given that they have won just one of their last 21 matches in all competitions, losing the last five of those.
That includes a truly embarrassing 8-0 thrashing at the hands of Wigan in their most recent away outing, followed up by a 1-0 loss to Luton Town that has all but sealed their fate.
A day of contrasting emotions awaits at the Cardiff City Stadium, then, with two divisions potentially separating these sides in a couple of weeks' time.
Cardiff City's Championship form: DWLLWW
Hull City's Championship competition form: WLLLLL
Team News
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Lee Tomlin has been key to Cardiff's promotion charge and has started back-to-back games, but three starts in a row is surely past the injury-prone playmaker.
One or both of Junior Hoilett and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing may be in need of a breather, meanwhile, with the former having to come off early on against Boro.
That opens the door for Murphy to come into the XI, fresh on the back of netting a brace at the Riverside, and Danny Ward is also in line for a recall to give Robert Glatzel a rest.
Grant McCann unsurprisingly made mass changes following the heavy loss to Wigan, changing half of his starting XI for the defeat to Luton.
George Long, Jordy de Wijs and Reece Burke all dropped out of the backline, while Matt Ingram was brought in for his league debut.
The likes of Jon Toral, Matthew Pennington and Josh Bowler are all pushing for recalls, but McCann may well have lost all faith in them.
Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Smithies; Bacuna, Morrison, Nelson, Bennett; Vaulks, Ralls, Pack; Mendez-Laing, Ward, Murphy
Hull City possible starting lineup:
Ingram; Lopes, MacDonald, Tafazolli, Elder; Batty, Stewart; Wilks, Honeyman, Scott; Eaves
We say: Cardiff City 2-0 Hull City
The pressure is still on Cardiff heading into this final regular season fixture, knowing that a shock defeat will open the door for Swansea to pounce. The Bluebirds have been in good form since last month's restart, though, while Hull have won just twice in 2020, so we can only see this game finishing one way.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 56.25%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Hull City had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.08%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.05%), while for a Hull City win it was 0-1 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.
