Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 42.2%. A win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 29.73% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Arminia Bielefeld win was 0-1 (10.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.