Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 38.82%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 33.24% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 (10.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.