Copa Sudamericana finalists Bragantino and Athletico Paranaense will lock horns in the Brasileiro on Sunday before their showpiece event in just over two weeks' time.
The hosts are unbeaten in each of their last six league games at the Estadio Nabi Abi Chedid, while the visitors have lost eight of their last 10 matches on the road.
Match preview
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Bragantino's run of nine matches unbeaten across all competitions came to an end in dramatic fashion on Monday, when Rafael Gava scored in the 94th minute to seal a narrow 1-0 victory for Cuiaba.
Mauricio Barbieri's men missed the chance to climb into second place, but they do remain inside the top four, just one point above Fortaleza in fifth who have a game in hand.
With just eight Brasileiro games remaining, Braga are set to improve on their 10th-place finish from last season and they are also in a strong position of qualifying for the Copa Libertadores for the first time in their history.
Bragantino head into Sunday's fixture after winning each of their last three league matches, keeping three clean sheets in the process. The Red Bulls, however, have failed to win any of their last three meetings with Paranaense, so their impressive home run could be under threat this weekend.
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Athletico Paranaense's recent form in the Brasileiro, however, should give Bragantino some confidence, as the Rubro-Negro have failed to win any of their last six league games.
This run includes last weekend's 2-2 draw at home to holders Flamengo, which Alberto Valentim should be pleased with considering they were two goals down heading into the final half hour. Gabriel Barbosa's first-half brace had seemingly put the visitors in control, however Renato Kayzer's 63rd-minute strike was followed by a dramatic 95th-minute equaliser from Guilherme Bissoli.
Paranaense are now sitting in 14th place, two points behind the Copa Sudamericana qualification places and also five points clear of the relegation zone.
As keen as Valentim will be to see his side secure a place in next season's Copa Sudamericana, survival in the top flight will be his priority and a few more victories from their final nine matches should be enough to avoid the drop.
Paranaense have won only one of their last 10 away games in the Brasileiro, but they were able to come out on top in their last visit to Bragantino, winning 1-0 in December 2020. Victory on Sunday could see the Rubro-Negro climb as high as 10th in the table, two points clear of Ceara who they will face on Wednesday.
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Team News
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Bragantino have a lengthy injury list which includes midfielders Jadsom, Bruno Praxedes and Bruno Tubarao, who are all suffering with ankle problems.
Vitinho, Lucas Evangelista and Rafael Luiz are all suffering with thigh issues, while Luan Candido (head), Raul (knee) and Leandrinho (muscle) are also on the sidelines.
Eighteen-year-old midfielder Luciano is set to keep his place in the starting lineup alongside Helinho and Ramires, while star winger Artur – who served a one-match suspension last weekend – is set to replace Alerrandro and should join Tomas Cuello and Ytalo in attack; Both Artur and Ytalo have been in fine form this campaign, netting 17 goals each across all competitions.
As for Athletico Paranaense, Matheus Babi (knee) and Lucas Halter (foot) are both ruled out for the rest of the season, while Nicolas is unavailable for this weekend's clash due to a muscle injury.
Valentim will be disappointed to have Kayser, David Terans and Nicolas Hernandez all suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards, however Bissoli, Carlos Eduardo and Marcio Azevedo are set to be given a chance in the first XI as a result.
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Cleiton; Weverton, Natan, Ortiz, Weverson; Ramires, Helinho, Luciano; Artur, Ytalo, Cuello
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Santos; Henrique, Azevedo, Heleno; Marcinho, Christian, Cittadini, Abner; Nikao, Bissoli, Eduardo
We say: Bragantino 2-1 Athletico Paranaense
Although Bragantino lost last weekend and have also failed to win any of their last three games against Paranaense, they will be the favourites to come out on top at the Estadio Nabi Abi Chedid.
The hosts have looked strong on home soil in recent weeks and we expect them to come away with all three points against Valentim's men, who may struggle to pose a threat with both Kayser and Terans missing out.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 52.52%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 21.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.87%) and 2-1 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (8.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.
