Birmingham City play host to Derby County on Friday evening with the opportunity to move into third position in the Championship standings.
However, despite sitting seven places adrift of their hosts, the Rams will move ahead of Blues with victory at St Andrew's.
Match preview
© Reuters
If Lee Bowyer had been offered eighth position ahead of the first international break, the Birmingham manager would have accepted without much hesitation.
However, despite the bulk of their goals this season coming in the same match, there are signs that there is more to come from his Blues squad.
Emerging as contenders for promotion would be regarded as a bonus after the struggles of the past few years, but they are now one of a number of teams who have the potential to feature in the playoff race.
Three clean sheets have been kept in five matches, their solitary defeat coming at home to a Bournemouth side who will expect to challenge the likes of Fulham and West Bromwich Albion.
Nevertheless, Birmingham will eventually need to find more consistency in the final third, an issue which could have been solved with the shrewd addition of Troy Deeney.
© Reuters
Giving their ongoing turbulent period off the pitch, Wayne Rooney is another manager who can be satisfied with his team's work throughout August.
Even though there is a feeling of what could have been after shipping late goals to Peterborough United and Nottingham Forest, six points from five games is a respectable return.
The Rams have a daunting run of fixtures ahead of them, the trip to Birmingham being followed by a showdown with West Bromwich Albion at The Hawthorns.
While staying away from the relegation zone will be Rooney's main aim right now, the England legend knows that progress can be made up the table if his ageing backline continue to roll back the years.
- W
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- D
- L
- W
- L
- D
- D
- L
- W
- D
- D
- D
- L
- W
- D
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Given the growing understanding between Birmingham's front three, Deeney will likely start this fixture on the substitutes' bench.
Barring any late fitness issues, Bowyer could go with the team which started the 1-1 draw at Barnsley two weeks ago.
Despite scoring against Forest last time out, Tom Lawrence may lose his place in the Derby XI having required an injection to get through that fixture.
Sam Baldock should take his place after having had an extended period to recover from a hamstring injury.
With Kamil Jozwiak having spent the international break representing Poland, Festy Ebosele may be considered for a start on the right flank.
Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Sarkic; Roberts, Dean, Pedersen; Colin, Woods, Sunjic, Bela; Chong, Hogan, Jutkiewicz
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Roos; Byrne, Jagielka, Davies, Forsyth; Bird, Shinnie; Ebosele, Morrison, Sibley; Baldock
We say: Birmingham City 1-1 Derby County
With neither team scoring goals for fun this season, do not expect the most entertaining of fixtures in the West Midlands.
However, two hard-working sides could produce a competitive battle, one which may end in a low-scoring draw.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 40.39%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8%) and 1-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (11.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
