Looking to move into first place in Group J of the World Cup 2022 qualifiers, Benin play hosts to Madagascar at the Stade de l'Amitié on Thursday.
The visitors, who are currently rooted to the bottom of the table, head into the game fresh from picking up their first win of the campaign and will be looking to keep the juggernaut rolling.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having missed out on a place in the in the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations by just goal difference, Benin got their hunt for a World Cup ticket off to a flyer as they claimed a claimed a 1-0 win over Madagascar in September's reverse leg courtesy of Steve Mounie's 22nd-minute strike.
This was followed by a 1-1 draw with Congo DR four days later, when Dieumerci Mbokani and Jordan Adeoti scored for either side to force a share of the spoils, before returning to winning ways courtesy of a slender 1-0 victory away to Tanzania.
In that encounter, despite being on the back foot for most of the game, Mounie netted his 10th goal for the Squirrels to hand them all three points and fire them top of Group J.
However, Benin were sent crashing down to earth in the second of their double-header versus Tanzania last time, when Simon Msuva scored inside the opening six minutes to hand the Taifa Stars their second win of the campaign.
Michel Dussuyer's men head into Thursday's game level on points with Tanzania at the top of the group standings after picking up seven points from their opening four games.
While the 62-year-old will be satisfied with his side's performance at the defensive end of the pitch, where they have conceded just twice in four games, a lack of firepower up top has been a major cause of concern as they have netted just three goals so far.
© Reuters
Meanwhile, heading into the qualifiers on a run of five games without a win across all competitions, Madagascar failed to find their feet in the group opener as they fell to a 1-0 defeat against Thursday's hosts at the Mahamasina Municipal Stadium.
This was followed by a 3-2 defeat at the hands of Tanzania a little under one week later before their qualification hopes took a huge blow courtesy of a 2-0 loss to Congo DR on October 7, when Chadrac Akolo and Dieumerci Mbokani found the target in either half.
However, the Barea head into Thursday's game fresh off the back of ending their eight-game winless run when they stunned Congo DR to a 1-0 home win in the second of their two successive meetings.
After Njiva Rakotoharimalala broke the deadlock in the opening minute, Madagascar put on a defensive show of class to hold the lead and keep their qualification chances alive.
Despite the win, Nicolas Dupuis's side remain rooted to the bottom of Group J, four points off the qualification spot and this has been down to their frailties at the defensive end of the pitch, where they boast the group's poorest record with six goals shipped.
However, the French head coach will hope the victory last time out can serve as a springboard for a fine run of form as his side look to mount a late charge for a place in the final qualifying round.
- W
- D
- W
- L
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Dussuyer has named a 25-man squad for the upcoming games against Madagascar and Congo DR, including the Amiens duo of defender Youssouf Assogba and forward Charbel Gomez.
Mounie has been pivotal in the Squirrels' campaign, scoring the only goal of the game in their two wins so far, and we expect the Stade Brestois forward to spearhead the attack once again.
Madagascar, on the other hand, head into the game with a 24-man squad, including the Excelsior duo of Fabien Boyer and Gladyson and LA Galaxy midfielder Rayan Raveloson.
Lens goalkeeper Yannick Pandor and Marignane defender Nomena Andriantiana have both been handed their first senior call-ups by Dupuis and could make their debut this Thursday.
Meanwhile, having netted two of Madagascar's three goals so far, Njiva Rakotoharimalala will be one to watch out for on Thursday.
Benin possible starting lineup:
Allagbe; Verdon, Adenon, Hountondji; Doremus, Ahlinvi, Adeoti, Kiki; Gomez, Mounie, Pote
Madagascar possible starting lineup:
Randriamamy; Metanire, Boyer, Gervais, Morel, Lapoussin; Rakotoharimalala, Ilaimaharitra, Raveloson, Voavy; Rakotondraibe
We say: Benin 2-0 Madagascar
Benin have enjoyed a decent campaign so far and find themselves tied on points with Tanzania at the top of Group J. The visitors, in contrast, have struggled to get going so far and are currently rock bottom in the standings. Benin claimed a slender win when the sides met in the reverse fixture and we anticipate a repeat of the same with the hosts coming out on top once again.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Madagascar win with a probability of 38.98%. A draw had a probability of 30.7% and a win for Benin had a probability of 30.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Madagascar win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.93%) and 1-2 (7.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.47%), while for a Benin win it was 1-0 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
