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Alaves logo
La Liga | Gameweek 38
Jul 19, 2020 at 4pm UK
Estadio de Mendizorroza
Barcelona logo

Alaves
0 - 5
Barcelona

FT(HT: 0-3)
Fati (24'), Messi (34', 75'), Suarez (44'), Semedo (57')

Preview: Alaves vs. Barcelona - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Alaves and Barcelona, including team news and predicted lineups.

Barcelona, who conceded the La Liga title to Real Madrid on Thursday night, will round off their 2019-20 domestic campaign with a trip to Alaves on Sunday.

The Spanish champions will enter this weekend's clash off the back of a 2-1 home defeat to Osasuna, while Alaves recorded an impressive 2-1 victory away to Real Betis in their last match.


Match preview

Alaves forward Lucas Perez pictured in December 2019© Reuters

Alaves appear set for their lowest finish in La Liga since earning promotion back to the top flight at the end of the 2015-16 campaign, but the fact that they have not been relegated during a tough season is a huge positive.

Under the management of Juan Muniz until the end of the campaign, the Basque club have lost 18 of their 37 league matches this season to sit down in 15th position in the table.

El Glorioso cannot be relegated, though, as they sit four points clear of 18th-placed Leganes, with their survival guaranteed courtesy of an impressive 2-1 victory at Real Betis on Thursday night.

The win in Seville was actually their first success in Spain's top flight since June 18, while they have lost each of their last six league games against Barca, including a 4-1 defeat at Camp Nou back in December.

Barcelona captain Lionel Messi pictured on June 19, 2020© Reuters

Barca, meanwhile, as mentioned, will enter this match off the back of a shock 2-1 home defeat to Osasuna on Thursday night.

As it transpired, the result did not mean too much as Real Madrid's 2-1 home success over Villarreal ensured that Zinedine Zidane's side would win the title with a game to spare.

There is no question that it was still a desperately disappointing defeat for the club, though, and Lionel Messi aired his displeasure in the immediate aftermath.

Relinquishing control of the La Liga title will have seriously hurt the club, but they still have the Champions League to play for this season and will face Napoli in the second leg of their last-16 clash on August 8, with the tie delicately poised courtesy of a 1-1 draw in Italy back in February.

Barca have actually dropped points in 10 of their 18 away league matches this season, while they could finish the campaign as many as 10 points behind the champions, which would be a huge disappointment.

Alaves La Liga form: LLLLDW

Barcelona La Liga form: DDWWWL


Team News

Antoine Griezmann pictured on June 23, 2020© Reuters

Alaves will be without the services of Rodrigo Ely due to the red card that the central defender picked up against Betis last time out, while Ruben Duarte and Fernando Pacheco are both definitely out through injury.

The home side also have concerns over the fitness of Javier Lopez, Ximo Navarro and Ismael Gutierrez, but Martin Aguirregabiria will be back from the suspension that saw him miss out on Thursday.

Lucas Perez is set to return to the attack alongside Joselu, while Aleix Vidal and Tomas Pina are also expected to return in midfield positions for the home side.

As for Barca, Ousmane Dembele is again out with a long-term hamstring injury, while Antoine Griezmann and Samuel Umtiti are also likely to miss out with thigh and knee problems respectively.

The Catalan giants also have three players suspended in the shape of Gerard Pique, Ivan Rakitic and Junior Firpo, meaning that there could be a spot in central defence for Ronald Araujo.

Araujo, Ansu Fati and Riqui Puig have actually been prevented from turning out for Barcelona B in their Segunda Division playoff against Real Valladolid's B team this weekend as they are needed in the first team.

Sergio Busquets, Jordi Alba and Luis Suarez could all return to the starting XI, with Martin Braithwaite among those expected to drop out of the side.

Alaves possible starting lineup:
Jimenez; Aguirregabiria, Laguardia, Magallan, Marin; Mendez, Pina, Camarasa, Vidal; Joselu, Perez

Barcelona possible starting lineup:
Ter Stegen; Semedo, Araujo, Lenglet, Alba; Puig, Busquets, Roberto; Fati, Suarez, Messi


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Alaves 0-2 Barcelona

This match does not have anything significant riding on it, but there is no question that Barca will be determined to return to winning ways following the disappointment of the Osasuna result. Alaves are capable of causing Quique Setien's side problems, but we are fully expecting an away victory here.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 71.45%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 9.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-2 with a probability of 15.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (14.78%) and 0-3 (10.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.69%), while for an Alaves win it was 1-0 (4.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.


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Barcelona manager Quique Setien pictured on June 13, 2020
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona13110240122833
2Real Madrid1283125111427
3Atletico MadridAtletico137511971226
4Villarreal127322319424
5Osasuna136341720-321
6Athletic Bilbao135531913620
7Real BetisBetis135531412220
8Real Sociedad135351110118
9Mallorca135351010018
10GironaGirona135351617-118
11Celta Vigo135262022-217
12Rayo Vallecano124441313016
13Sevilla134361218-615
14Leganes133551316-314
15AlavesAlaves134181422-813
16Las PalmasLas Palmas133371622-612
17Getafe13175811-310
18Espanyol123181122-1110
19Real ValladolidValladolid132381025-159
20Valencia11146817-97


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