Barcelona kick off their maiden European game of the post-Ronald Koeman era on Tuesday, with Dynamo Kiev lying in wait in Champions League Group E.
A Gerard Pique winner was all that separated the two sides last time out, but the Blaugrana's uncertain managerial situation could see the Ukrainian side sense an opportunity in midweek.
Match preview
© Reuters
Winless and goalless in the 2021-22 Champions League group stages, Dynamo Kiev would have taken confidence from Barcelona's poor showing during the last knockings of the Koeman reign, but they still came up just short at Camp Nou.
With 36 minutes on the clock, veteran defender Pique was on hand to tap home at the back stick and leave Dynamo rooted to the bottom of the rankings following a previous draw with Benfica and comprehensive 5-0 defeat to Bayern Munich.
Dynamo Kiev are one of three sides yet to find the back of the net in this year's group stage - along with Malmo and fellow Ukrainian outfit Shakhtar Donetsk - but the rarest of victories this week would see Mircea Lucescu's rise leapfrog Barca into third place.
Since that narrow defeat at the hands of La Blaugrana, Dynamo have chalked up three consecutive victories in league and cup action, most recently relying on the goals of midfield maestros of Sergiy Sydorchuk (2) and Mykola Shaparenko to get them over the line 3-2 against FK Mariupol.
In spite of their troubles at the other end of the pitch, Dynamo's resilience at home is simply remarkable, as they have kept clean sheets in each of their last 13 home games, although a La Liga side in Villarreal were the most recent team to break the hosts' home resistance all the way back in March.
© Reuters
Koeman appeared to be hanging on by the thinnest of threads at Barcelona for a number of months, but defeat to Rayo Vallecano proved to be the straw that broke the Dutchman's back, with Joan Laporta finally taking the difficult decision to relieve him of his duties.
Amid persistent speculation surrounding a return to Camp Nou for Xavi - in a managerial role rather than pulling the strings in midfield - Sergi Barjuan has taken interim charge of the team for now, but his reign did not kick off in perfect fashion at the weekend.
After the worrying sight of Sergio Aguero going down clutching his chest in the first half before leaving the stadium in an ambulance, Memphis Depay opened the scoring in the 49th minute before Luis Rioja rescued a point for Alaves in a 1-1 draw.
La Blaugrana have now failed to win in three since prevailing in their matchday three clash with Dynamo, and the third-placed Catalans are now in the unfamiliar position of fighting for their right to play in the last 16, with Bayern all but through and Benfica one point above as things stand.
Worryingly, Barcelona have gone five away games in all competitions without a win since the season kicked off - failing to score in each of their last four - but they thrashed Dynamo Kiev 4-0 away from home as recently as November 2020.
- D
- L
- L
- D
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Dynamo's woes on the attacking injury front are not letting up any time soon, as Artem Besedin, Vladyslav Kulach, Ibrahim Kargbo and Vladyslav Supryaga are all set to remain absent.
Centre-back Denys Popov continues to recover from cruciate ligament surgery, with his absence allowing 19-year-old Ilya Zabarnyi another opportunity to pit his wits against Barcelona, and left-back Vitaly Mykolenko will also miss out due to injury.
The only real dilemma for Lucescu is who to field at the tip of the attack, with Eric Ramirez, Ilya Shkurin and Benjamin Verbic all vying for the chance to lead the line.
Aguero was admitted to hospital for cardiac exams following his episode against Alaves, and reports have claimed that the Argentine suffered a minor tachycardia attack, which will certainly render him unavailable here.
Pique has also been ruled out of this encounter due to overload, while Martin Braithwaite, Pedri and Sergi Roberto are missing as Frenkie de Jong, Ronald Araujo, Ousmane Dembele and Ansu Fati return to the squad, but the quartet may not be ready to start.
Clement Lenglet may be forced to deputise in defence this week, while there could also be a spot in the side for Philippe Coutinho as Barjuan works around Aguero's absence.
Dynamo Kiev possible starting lineup:
Bushchan; Kedziora, Zabarnyi, Syrota, Karavaev; Shaparenko, Sydorchuk; De Pena, Buyalskyi, Tsygankov; Shkurin
Barcelona possible starting lineup:
Ter Stegen; Mingueza, Garcia, Lenglet, Alba; Gavi, Busquets, Gonzalez; Dest, Depay, Coutinho
We say: Dynamo Kiev 0-1 Barcelona
With Dynamo Kiev yet to concede on home soil this term and Barcelona's profligacy coming into play away from home, the form book may suggest a memorable home win against an injury-hit Blaugrana.
Gone are the days where Barca would sweep aside Dynamo Kiev by four goals to nil, but we still have confidence in the Blaugrana's talented attackers to bag at least one crucial goal and boost their qualification bid.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 49.19%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Dynamo Kiev had a probability of 25.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.35%) and 0-2 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.14%), while for a Dynamo Kiev win it was 1-0 (7.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Barcelona in this match.
